We also understood that the more he was asked to work for Vingegaard and his team, the fewer would be his chances for individual victories. His last Classics victory came in 2023, in the E3 Saxo Bank Classic, and his last significant wins of any kind were the three stage wins in last year’s Vuelta a España – before a horrendous crash on a descent on stage 16 put an end to his quest for another Grand Tour green jersey, which he was poised to win.
That was van Aert’s second serious crash of the year, after he fell on an ascent in the Dwars door Vlaanderen in late March, which put him out of commission for two months. Two serious crashes in a year are a lot of misfortune, and recovering requires patience and hard work and, perhaps most important, the ability to put it all behind you. But that may become more difficult with age. And I wonder if, at age 30, van Aert may have lost the ability to rebound from severe setbacks.
Fear of sprinting?
I say this based on the evidence I have seen so far. It’s early days still, of course, but from what we’ve seen of the Belgian, he seems to be far from his best and worryingly risk-averse, as if he has lost confidence in his ability to handle a bike. In both Saturday’s Omloop Nieuwsblad and Sunday’s Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, he was often out of position at the back of the peloton and did not attack openings to make it to the front the way he used to.
In addition, riding lead-out for Visma’s elite sprinter Olav Kooij in the Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, van Aert seemed to drop away early, before the sprinting heated up, which forced Kooij to use Jasper Philipsen and his lead-out, Kaden Groves (both Alpecin-Deceuninck), to secure a position. But he attacked too late and never looked like beating Philipsen.
In his own few attempts to win a bunch sprint this year, van Aert has looked tentative and, frankly, a little scared of plunging into the mass of riders racing at top speed to the finish line. It is significant that his best result so far has been a second place in the ITT at the Volta ao Algarve – that is, in a race in which there was no possibility of clipping someone’s wheel or being forced off the road or risking any of the 101 other mishaps that can lead to a crash. In that ITT, he was beaten only by Vingegaard, finishing well ahead of such excellent time trial riders as Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) and Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers). That means that he’s got the legs, but perhaps he hasn’t got the heart.
Twice bitten, twice shy?
Maybe those crashes last year left a mark on van Aert’s psyche, which is understandable and human. As the saying goes, once bitten, twice shy. And if you’ve been bitten twice? But superstars are so-called because they have powers most humans don’t possess, including the ability to forget setbacks no matter how painful – literally and figuratively – they were and then plunge right back into the messy, dangerous thick of whatever damaged them.
Of course, I could be wrong – I hope that I am wrong – and van Aert is saving his legs and his courage for the big races to come, Paris-Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders, in which he’ll be racing against the two best one-day riders in the world, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck). Although he himself has already suggested that he had little chance of beating either of them.
“I see few possible scenarios where you beat Mathieu and Pogačar while you yourself are less strong,” he said earlier this year. “In my case, I would have to be at least their equal to have a chance.” Was that gamesmanship, realism or early surrender? We’ll soon find out.
The van der Poel itch
As for van der Poel, the seven-time cyclocross world champion made his road debut on Tuesday, in the Samyn Classic, and demonstrated that he is still a master of the road and brimming with confidence. He made two attempts at a solo attack with about 70km to go in the 199km race, but decided against it and then waited for the bunch sprint to make his move from the front. It was no contest, with only the up-and-coming 20-year-old Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) finishing within two bike lengths of van der Poel.
“I was feeling pretty strong already during the race, but it wasn’t hard enough to make a difference,” he said after the race. “I felt also a lot of people watching me, so I think at 50km from the finish line, I said to my teammates I was going to save my legs for the sprint, because I knew a finish like this is something I was capable of winning, and that’s what I did. … With a finish like that, that climbs up a little, and the last five minutes with cobbles, it’s very, very hard, so I knew it could be a chance for me to sprint. I opened my sprint with confidence, and it was enough to win.”
Van der Poel was supposed to make his debut at next week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, but he couldn’t wait. “If the itch gets too strong,” he said Monday, “you just have to race.”
Perhaps that’s what van Aert is lacking now, an itch like that.
