The reason is simple but seriously disquieting for a team that, in the last few years, has functioned like a well-oiled and highly efficient machine and wants to continue its dominance: the number of riders lost to injury and illness in the first half of the season. It’s a little spooky that this is happening the year after UAE broke the record for the most team victories in a year. Just as it was a little spooky that Visma–Lease a Bike suffered a spate of injuries and illnesses after it became the first team ever to win all three Grand Tours in one year.
Coincidence, or the Twilight Zone?
Bad luck and a kangaroo
UAE’s management noted that up to 19 WorldTour and development riders have been sidelined so far this year, which forced the team to change schedules and even withdraw from some spring races. According to UAE sports manager Joxean Fernández Matxín, the problem is not only the number of riders missing, but also their quality. “Five of them were riders who could win races,” he complained.
Here is a summary of all the bad luck that has befallen UAE this year, beginning with the most recent, and worst, calamity, the stage 2 crash in the Giro d’Italia. In that shocking accident, Adam Yates suffered serious facial abrasions, an ear laceration, and delayed concussion symptoms that forced him to abandon the race the following morning. Marc Soler sustained a pelvic fracture that is keeping him out of the Tour de France.
Finally, Jay Vine suffered a concussion and a fractured elbow. This came after he had sustained a broken hand in a freak encounter with a kangaroo at the Tour Down Under in January. That bizarre accident should have acted as a red flag for UAE because you don’t run into a kangaroo while racing unless you are freighted with some really bad karma.
But there’s more. Jhonatan Narváez suffered stable compression fractures in his thoracic vertebrae following a heavy crash at the Tour Down Under. He did not race again until more than three months later, in the Giro d’Italia, in which he won three stages but abandoned the race after riding into the back of a stopped bus in the car park just after the end of stage 18.
Sprinter Tim Wellens broke his collarbone during Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, ending what was supposed to be an important Classics season for him. Just two months after making his comeback following a life-threatening crash in last year’s Tour of Poland, Filippo Baroncini crashed in Tro Bro Léon and broke his collarbone. Mikkel Bjerg dislocated his shoulder and broke his hand early in the season in Australia.
In addition, Isaac del Toro missed the Ardennes Classics due to a muscle tear in his right thigh following a crash at Itzulia Basque Country. He is now racing at the Tour Auvergne–Rhône-Alpes. And, finally, João Almeida has been suffering from a severe viral illness, which completely sapped his strength and forced him to stop training entirely for a while. He is also riding in the Tour Auvergne but looks like a shadow of his best self.
So who can help Pogačar in the Tour?
This storm of bad luck has affected the selection of riders who will help Tadej Pogačar win his record-equalling fifth Tour de France this year. The team has been forced to scrap its original plans and scramble to put together a revised line-up.
Soler’s absence is a significant blow. Since joining from Movistar in 2022, he had not missed a single Tour and was one of Pogačar’s most trusted domestiques, tireless in the mountains and often offering himself as a satellite rider. His absence is also a personal disappointment because the race route passes through his home region.
The outlook is more promising for another key veteran rider. “Adam Yates is good, and we’re hoping he’ll be in good shape for the Tour,” Matxín said. But that sounds more like wishful thinking than certainty. Yates would be a hard man to replace and his absence would mean that two of the team’s key veterans would not be at the Tour. That would open up spots for two strong but untested riders, such as 21-year-old Jan Christen, who looked very good in the Giro, or 20-year-old Pablo Torres.
And then there’s the fabulous 22-year-old del Toro. He was originally supposed to prepare for the Tour in smaller stage races. But his Itzulia crash caused him to miss more than two months of racing. There have been no significant mountain stages in the Tour Auvergne by the time of this writing, so it’s been impossible to evaluate his form. However, there was a team time trial on Tuesday in which he and UAE finished a disappointing ninth, more than a minute behind the winners, Visma–Lease a Bike.
The good news – but . . .
The good news for the team is that some of the riders who have helped the Slovenian win the Tour previously are fit. Pavel Sivakov and Brandon McNulty will presumably be the final mountain helpers before del Toro brings Pogačar to the launch pad for his solo moves, while Nils Politt, the fully recovered Wellens and Bjerg will handle the job of pacing the peloton and controlling breakaways on the flat when required. Bjerg is also a strong climber and has led Pogačar and the UAE train up the lower slopes of tough climbs.
While the team is optimistic, nothing has been decided definitively and nothing definitive will be announced until the last moment. “This season is demanding, but I believe we will arrive at the Tour with the strongest team,” sports director Andrej Hauptman told RTV SLO. “We still have to wait and see how the recovery of some riders progresses, and we will wait until the last moment to choose those who are truly best prepared.”
But one thing seems clear: Pogačar will have a somewhat younger and less experienced mountain train than he has had before. This may be more important than ever as old foe Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike) looked in the form of his life while winning five stages and the GC in the Giro. And his team was impressive, controlling the stages as they pleased and always setting him up perfectly for his winning climbs.
And there are still the unknown challenges posed by Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe’s Remco Evenepoel, who is coming into the race after more than two months of intensive training but no races, and Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM), who looks like the second coming of Pogie but is only 19 years old.
I have always believed that Pogačar is such a superior rider that he could win the Tour with even a lesser team. But I just can’t help thinking about Jay Vine and that kangaroo.
