This year, Roglič will be trying to duplicate the Giro-Tour double his Slovenian compatriot accomplished last year – though I’m guessing that the big object for the Red Bull–BORA– hansgrohe leader is the Tour. Roglič has never won the Tour, but he won the Giro in 2023, so he may not risk the Tour for a win in the Giro. Which means, for example, not going all-out when the road surface is slippery or on tricky descents.
The rivals
I’m not saying he doesn’t want to win the Giro; of course he does, but not as desperately as he wants to win the Tour. He is 35 years old and will not have many more chances, if any. Apparently, he and his team are confident about his form, and he looked very strong in the spring, winning the Volta a Catalunya at the end of March with a bold 20km solo breakaway on the final stage.
In the final GC, Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) finished second, 0:28 behind, Enric Mas (Movistar) was third (+0:53) , Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) was fourth (+0:54), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) finished seventh (+1:31), Simo Yates (Visma–Lease a Bike) was ninth (+1:46) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost) was tenth (+1:59). I mention all these also-rans from that race because they are Roglič’s main rivals in this Giro.
His performance in the Catalunya is one reason Roglič should be favored to win the Giro. Another is that he has already won the Giro once and so knows how to win it. The only other contender in the peloton with a Giro victory in his Palmares is Bernal, who won it in 2021; the Colombian has also won the Tour, in 2019, so he should be considered as a real threat. But he has not yet shown that he has fully recovered from the life-threatening injuries he sustained in a training crash in January 2022. In fact, he has only won two races since returning to the road, the Colombian national ITT and road race championships this year.
Is this Ayuso’s year?
The man who finished second in the Catalunya, Ayuso, should be Roglič’s main rival in the Giro. He is only 22 years old and is already strong enough to be a Grand Tour winner. Could this be his year? It could be, if Roglič rides too cautiously or if the usual super-strong UAE support riders play a big role. To have Adam Yates, Rafel Majka, Brandon McNulty and Isaac del Toro on your side is always an advantage in the mountains.
Red Bull’s support riders aren’t slouches, but they are up against the best cycling team in the world. Ayuso certainly thinks he has the advantage. “I think we have the strongest team in the race and I feel that is our biggest strength,” he said. “We have strong rivals in the GC, with Roglič in particular, but we are ready for the challenge.”
The one rider that could challenge the two favorites in the mountains and perhaps money is Carapaz, who always comes into a Grand Tour close to his best form and then gets better as the race gets tougher. He has some excellent climbers in support, such as Hugh Carthy and Jefferson Cepeda, but I don’t understand why the indefatigable Irishman Ben Healy isn’t with him. Is it because Healy rode in some of the spring Classics and is being transformed into a one-day rider? Or will he be riding in the Tour? Whatever the reason, Carapaz will miss him. He will also regret his less than excellent time-trialing ability, a discipline at which both Ayuso and Roglič excel.
One other rider who perhaps could be a threat to the favorites is Tudor Pro’s Michael Storer. The 28-year-old Australian showed real climbing chops in the Tour of the Alps, which he won by a whopping 1:33 over INEOS Grenadiers’ Thyman Arensman and 4:07 over Derek Gee (Israel–Premier Tech). Arensman and Gee aren’t Ayuso and Roglič, but Storer’s performance at least made him a rider to watch in the Giro.
This Giro has a fascinating new wrinkle that could have a real impact on the GC. On 19 of the 21 stages, there will be a “Red Bull KM,” described as a “gateway” to the only intermediate sprint that counts toward the general classification because the first three riders to cross the exit gate of the “Red Bull KM” will earn time bonuses of six, four, and two seconds. That means one rider could theoretically gain 1:14 in the GC by winning every one of those intermediate sprints, though of course that’s not likely.
You might think that this is more than a simple branding gimmick and designed to help the team’s leader, Roglič. But in the Volta a Catalunya, it was Ayuso who benefited more from the intermediate sprints than Roglič did. Probably the Red Bull KM will have a minimal effect on the GC outcome, but it will certainly spice up the stages.
What will van Aert be up to?
I’m curious to know what the strategy of Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike) will be in the race. According to his good friend and former teammate Nathan van Hooydonck, “Wout is aiming for a stage win. That would mean he’s won a stage in all three Grand Tours. I think that’s definitely one of his goals.” He thinks van Aert may go for that win on Friday’s hilly opening stage, 160km from Durrës to the capital Tirana, and so wear the leader’s pink (rosa) jersey for at least one stage – though the 13.7km ITT on stage 2 could also suit him, if he has the legs.
I would have thought that he might also go for the purple (ciclamino) jersey of the points classification, but Visma is bringing its excellent young sprinter Olav Kooij, who has apparently recovered from the broken collarbone he suffered in a crash in Gent-Wevelgem.
He is one of the favorites to win the maglia ciclamino, along with Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). They are the three strongest sprinters in the race since the two-time defending champion, Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), is being saved for the Tour de France. Interestingly, Kooij will not be riding in the Tour. Does that mean van Aert will be going for another green jersey this year, to try and repeat his 2022 victory in that competition? If so, he’ll have a formidable opponent in Milan, as well as in former green jersey winner Jasper Philipsen.
But that’s in July. The Giro is now!
