Last year, every cycling fan surely recalls, Kuss won the race – while the then Jumbo-Visma team took all three podium places. Commentators and the public had put pressure on the team not to deprive the American (who was, surprisingly, leading the race in week 3) of the victory because he had been so important to many of the team’s Grand Tour wins.
After the race, a debate ensued in which most people, including Kuss, said that he would have won the Vuelta anyway, while others thought that, based on the way the three rode the race, that he would have finished third.
This year, Kuss comes into the race as team leader, with Vingegaard absent and Roglič racing against him as leader of the Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe team. That should prove to be a fascinating sidebar to the GC battle. Also fascinating is the fact that both Kuss and Visma are downplaying his chances for a repeat.
“I definitely don’t see myself as the top favourite for the overall victory,” Kuss is quoted as saying on the team’s website. “I’m ready to lead the team in the Vuelta but I don’t feel any pressure. Hopefully, I can grow into the race and quickly find a good rhythm.”
Like the rest of the team, Kuss has had a difficult season, beset by injury and Covid, which forced him to miss the Tour de France. But his stage and GC wins in the recent Vuelta a Burgos show that he is rounding into form.
Team sports director Grischa Nierman also said on the website that Kuss is “not the top favourite to win this Vuelta,” and appears to suggest that perhaps the 21-year-old Cian Uijtdebroeks who finished eighth in last year’s Vuelta could grow into the role of leader during the race.
“Cian rode a strong first part of the Giro but unfortunately had to withdraw due to illness,” Nierman said. “He could have competed for a top-five finish. He quickly refocused on the Vuelta and is extremely motivated but he’s still very young. Therefore, there’s not too much pressure on him: he’ll have a free role. If, for example, Sepp suddenly takes the lead, it could be that Cian will take on a more supportive role.”
One of their main rivals will certainly be Roglič who has won the Vuelta three times and will be riding the race with a vengeance after his disappointment in the Tour de France. Unfortunately, when the 34-year-old Slovenian rides with a vengeance, he sometimes falls off his bike – as he did twice in the Tour before abandoning.
The course will suit Roglič with its 47,000 meters of climbing sandwiched by two ITTs in the first and final stages. On his best day, he is one of the best climbers in the world and a top ITT rider, which Kuss is not. Week two ends with one of the toughest climbs in the sport, the HC Cuitu Negru, 18.9 km @7.4% with the final 3 km at about 18% and one section at 24%.
The final week is almost all uphill. In fact, most of the race is lumpy, with only one stage categorised as flat. So there will be no predictions here regarding who will win the green jersey. It could literally be anyone – but it will probably be Wout van Aert.
As in this year’s Tour, UAE Team Emirates will send a very strong team to the Vuelta – but without its superstar Tadej Pogačar who resisted the temptation to try to win all three Grand Tours this year because, according to Geraint Thomas, he said, “I need to keep some friends in the team.” Thomas added: “Basically, that team’s full of hitters and they want their chance, and I’m guessing they’ve been told the Vuelta is that chance. If he turns around now and says, ‘I’m going there,’ there’s going to be a lot of disgruntled teammates that you need to keep on your side.”
Two of those “hitters” are Adam Yates and João Almeida who were so important to Pogačar’s Tour de France victory. The two already raced together as co-leaders in this year’s Tour de Suisse, which Yates won by 22 seconds over his teammate. But the two basically discussed, en route, how they will race and who will take the lead, so that is not an accurate barometer.
As in Switzerland, the team leader will be determined during the race – though I think the 26-year-old Almeida has the edge on his 32-year-old teammate. And what about their young teammate Isaac del Toro who UAE trainer Giacomo Notari said reminds him “a bit of Pogačar”? The 20-year-old Mexican is definitely a star of the future but this is probably a bridge too soon for him.
Other favourites for the red jersey include Mikel Landa (Soudal–Quick Step) who worked hard for teammate Remco Evenepoel in the Tour; Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) who won the KOM competition in the Tour; and, maybe,
Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), though the team is in a crisis and he finished seventh in the Tour, behind Almeida, Landa and Yates.
Roglič is the slight favourite, but it’s great to have a Grand Tour at last in which the outcome isn’t a foregone conclusion.
