That was the mood at TNT Sports on Sunday and Monday after Pogačar gifted the stage 2 victory to his UAE teammate Isaac del Toro, and especially after stage 3, after del Toro set up his leader for an easy winning sprint. There was talk among the TNT commentators that the four-time Tour winner would take five or six stages and that his rival Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike) was already “on his hands and knees.”
I’m no different than most people in that I tend to believe the “experts” when they sound convinced of their expertise, whether it’s about the best way to wash strawberries, what to eat to live to 100 or what a particular stage win means. But I took another look at the end of stages 2 and 3 just because I couldn’t believe that a rider as strong as Vingegaard could already be “on his hands and knees” on the second stage of a three-week race he has already won twice.
Far from being exhausted, Vingegaard was simply coasting at the end of those two stages, merely shadowing Pogačar to the finish line. And once over the line, he wasn’t winded but looked relaxed and untroubled by the fact that he’d finished fourth on stage 2 and had lost his yellow jersey to the Slovenian on stage 3.
Vingegaard himself said after stage 2 that “the final sprint was very explosive. That is an anaerobic effort and, honestly, that is not my strongest point. So, if I am really honest, I am quite satisfied with how it turned out.” And he went on to say, “I enjoy every day in yellow. Of course, at some point, it can be tactically beneficial to give the jersey away.”
Which is probably one reason he didn’t put much effort into his stage 3 sprint either. And then he praised his nemesis for letting del Toro win his first Tour stage. “I think Tadej is a great guy,” Vingegaard said. “It is very generous of him to give a stage victory to a teammate. But to be fair, that teammate really deserved it as well. He is a huge talent, and he is incredibly strong. It was an impressive ride from both of them.”
Does that sound like a worried cyclist? On the contrary, that sounds like someone full of confidence. His praise stands in stark contrast to the behaviour of del Toro and Pogačar, who, in celebrating the Mexican’s victory, mocked Visma’s exuberant celebrations after their win in the stage 1 team time trial.
Their hugs and leaps of triumph (which the UAE duo mimicked) were understandable as they had just taken their first Tour yellow jersey since Vingegaard last won the Tour in 2023. If the Tour de France is, as Chris Froome has said, the Holy Grail of cycling, you can understand the team’s rejoicing. So, I think that Pogačar’s reaction to it was a bit infantile.
But perhaps he and his team worked so hard to win two insignificant stages, which could (and should) have been taken by breakaways, because Pogačar was not at all happy about losing the team time trial to his strongest rival, and he took their exuberant celebrations as a challenge. But it’s uncharacteristic of him to let himself be provoked into wasting his and his team’s energy simply to show up a rival rider and team, especially as he held the yellow jersey for only a day, giving it up on Tuesday’s stage 4.
Or is he actually worried about winning the Tour and wanted to play mind games? It’s important to remember that Pogačar’s Tour dominance began after Vingegaard’s disastrous crash in the 2024 Itzulia Basque Country, which meant that for two years he had no serious rival on the Tour. But the old Vingegaard is back, and better than ever, as he has claimed. And, of course, he and his team have a plan.
Because I also noticed that, though UAE had mobilised all its big hitters for stage 3, Vingegaard had only a few riders around him. Everyone except Sepp Kuss was missing from the front of the peloton when matters heated up on the stage. The other key riders, like Davide Piganzoli and Matteo Jorgenson, were mostly back in the peloton, taking it easy.
The Visma plan is the usual strategy for a difficult Grand Tour: don’t waste your time on meaningless contests and save your energy for the good stuff, for the big climbs to come. This is an unusually difficult Tour, with a total of 54,450 m of climbing, compared to 51,550 m last year and 52,230 m. Of that total, 9,000 m come on stages 19 and 20, the last two competitive stages of the race, with 5,450 m on stage 20 alone. Barring accident or illness, that’s where the GC will be decided, regardless of how many stages UAE or Visma win in the meantime.
If Vingegaard is back to his best self, as he has claimed, then this race is a toss-up until it isn’t anymore. The race is very far from over, so it’s foolish to make a three-week weather forecast based on two days of rain. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s wrong. Because, as Mike Tyson put it, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
