A closer look at what e-bikes actually replace
It’s easy to assume that every person switching to an e-bike is replacing a car journey. But that’s not always true, some riders might otherwise have taken the bus, cycled a regular bike, or even walked. To find out what really happens, researchers from the University of Wuppertal and Ruhr-Universität Bochum decided to dig into the data.
Their open-access study, published in the International Journal of Sustainable Transportation in 2025, analysed more than 190,000 trips. Using a nested logit model, a standard tool in transport research, they modelled how people choose between different modes of travel, including walking, public transport, car, conventional bike, and e-bike.
The model didn’t just consider distance and time, but also terrain, bicycle infrastructure, and public-transport access, factors that haven’t been included in previous research.
E-bikes behave more like cars than bikes
One of the most interesting findings was that e-bikes behave more like cars than like regular bikes. When the researchers looked at how trip length influences people’s choices, e-bike trips were much closer to car trips. Put simply, people are willing to use an e-bike for much longer distances than they would attempt on a normal bike.
Another insight came from terrain data. While hills reduced the likelihood of choosing a bicycle in general, e-bike riders were far less sensitive to gradient than conventional cyclists. The motor does not remove the impact of steep terrain completely, but it makes those trips far more feasible.
Why it matters
These patterns have big implications for urban planners and sustainability experts. If e-bikes attract the same types of trips people would otherwise make by car, and not just replace regular bike rides, they can play a key role in cutting emissions and congestion while boosting physical activity.
The authors also emphasise that e-bike infrastructure should reflect this broader use case: longer distances, higher average speeds, and a need for safe, continuous cycling corridors that connect suburban and urban areas.
As the researchers put it, “E-bikes have the potential to substitute a considerable share of car trips, particularly in areas with adequate cycling infrastructure and manageable gradients.”
The study’s limitations
Like any large-scale model, this one is not perfect. The dataset comes from 2017, when e-bike ownership in Germany was still relatively low. Today’s market is far more diverse, with cargo e-bikes, long-range batteries, and new regulations all influencing rider behaviour.
The authors acknowledge that repeating the analysis with newer data could produce even stronger substitution effects, since e-bikes have become faster, more capable, and socially mainstream.
So… how many car trips are you really replacing?
Here’s the number you’ve been waiting for: according to the researchers, around 43 % of all e-bike trips and more than 63 % of total e-bike mileage would otherwise have been made by car.
In other words, nearly half of the times you ride your e-bike, you’re likely taking a car off the road, and for the longer trips, that replacement effect is even stronger.
That’s not just good news for emissions; it’s also good news for public health. Each car trip replaced by an e-bike adds gentle physical activity to a person’s day, which can meaningfully improve fitness and mental wellbeing, even if the motor does part of the work.
What riders and cities can take away
For individual riders, the message is simple: every e-bike ride counts, especially the longer ones. Use the assist to stretch your commute or tackle a hilly route you’d otherwise avoid, those are the trips that matter most.
For cities, the takeaway is equally clear. When supported by safe and direct cycling networks, e-bikes can make a measurable dent in car dependency, offering a bridge between traditional cycling and motorised transport.
