Can Pogačar lose Strade Bianche? No!
Only a dummkopf would see anyone but Tadej Pogačar winning Strade Bianche. Not only is he the best one-day rider in the world – and perhaps ever – but he is facing rather modest opposition here, in the absence of Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel, and Wout van Aert. The UAE Team Emirates–XGR leader won the race in 2022 and last year, when he beat second-place Toms Skujiņš (Lidl-Trek) by an astonishing 2:44, after a devastating solo breakaway of 81km(!) in his first race of the year. This will be his second race of the year, after the UAE Tour, so he might have even better legs this time.
The reason Pogačar didn’t win Strade Bianche in 2023 is because he didn’t race in it. But he will win it again this year because he loves winning, and he loves the Classics. “I prefer the idea of being a Classics rider who wins Grand Tours, even if I started with a victory in the Tour,” he told L’Equipe during the winter. “I love the Classics, they’re pure adrenaline, a one-day shock that has nothing to do with suffering spread out over three weeks.”
There are some very good riders in this year’s edition, such as Marc Hirschi of Tudor Pro, Q36.5’s Tom Pidcock, who is having a terrific spring for his new team, and Uno-X Mobility’s Magnus Cort, who won three stages of the recent O Gran Camiño. But, brave and strong as they may be, they are simply no match for Pogačar at or near his best. For example, in last year’s Strade Bianche, Pidcock finished 3:50 behind the Slovenian. It’s likely that Pogačar will feel frisky again and start his winning move far out (though 81km may be a bit much this year).
Vingegaard wants big Paris-Nice win
Paris-Nice will be far more interesting competition-wise, as two-time Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike) is facing tough competition again from Pogačar’s UAE teammates, including the irrepressible João Almeida, who gave the Dane all he could handle in the recent Volta ao Algarve, leading the race until the final-stage ITT, eventually finishing second in the GC by a mere 15 seconds.
Unfortunately for Almeida and everyone else in the race, the stage-3 ITT in this year’s Paris-Nice is 28.4km long, or nearly 10km longer than the Algarve ITT. This means that, if there is no mishap and Vingegaard is near his best form, he will take even more time from his rivals. And there are three tough mountain stages, with summit finishes, that the Dane can control and choose on which one he will win, as he is the best pure climber in the race.
It helps that Vingegaard has last year’s winner, Matteo Jorgenson, riding for him. The 25-year-old American rode for Wout van Aert in last weekend’s Omloop Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and looked very strong. With van Aert’s form still questionable and the super-reliable Christophe Laporte still unable to train due to illness, Jorgenson may be the most important support rider for Visma this year.
Other than Almeida, the ever-improving Ben O’Connor (Jayco AlUla), perhaps Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose and, especially, Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) seem the likeliest riders to cause Vingegaard some problems. But the Visma leader wants to win every race he rides in, and he wants to send a message to Pogačar for the Tour de France, so he should prevail in his usual calm and calculated style.
Van der Poel in Wide-Open Tirreno-Adriatico
Finally, Tirreno-Adriatico will be a fascinating watch because of the presence of Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), who showed terrific form in Tuesday’s Samyn Classic by easily winning a bunch sprint. It’s hard to believe that, with Jasper Philipsen not at the start, van der Poel is in the race to ride lead-out for sprinter Robbe Ghys and prepare for the upcoming Classics. The seven-time cyclocross world champion is not known as a stage rider, and certainly not as a prodigious climber, but he is one of the best at riding hilly one-day races over distance.
This year’s Tirreno-Adriatico actually suits that rider profile. There is only one really difficult climb in the race, the HC Frontignano (7.6km @ 7.9%), which comes at the end of stage 6. Interestingly, aside from Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost), this year’s O Gran Camiño winner Derek Gee (Israel–Premier Tech), Soudal Quick-Step’s Mikel Landa, and Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), there are no real climbers in the race.
Oh, wait, there’s also Visma–Lease a Bike’s Simon Yates. Well, that makes for a lot of strong riders. So, as great a rider as van der Poel is, he has not yet shown he can climb with these guys. He would have to have an advantage of at least five minutes from the hilly stages, and I don’t see that happening. He will win a stage, or maybe two, but the yellow jersey should come down to a battle between Ayuso, who has won two of the three races he started this year, and Yates, who will want to impress his new team with a great performance his first time out in its colors.
In other words, we will probably be looking at yet another UAE-Visma brouhaha.
