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How Much Does Cycling, Running, or Swimming Reduce Your Risk of Premature Death?

By Jiri Kaloc

If you exercise regularly, you’re adding to your chances of enjoying a long and healthy life. But how much? Researchers from the University of South Australia decided to find out how much improved cardiovascular fitness reduce the risk of disease and death.

The largest study on fitness and health outcomes

The new study is the first to compile all the scientific evidence on the relationship between cardiorespiratory fitness and health outcomes in adults, encompassing 26 systematic reviews with meta-analyses. It includes over 20,9 million observations from 199 unique cohort studies. Senior author, Prof. Grant Tomkinson, says that cardiorespiratory fitness is probably the most important type of fitness for good health.

“Cardiorespiratory fitness (or CRF) is your ability to perform physical activity for a long period of time like running, cycling, and swimming. In this study we found prolonged cardiorespiratory fitness is strongly and consistently associated with all types of premature death and incident disease — spanning heart failure, depression, diabetes, dementia and even cancer,” Prof. Tomkinson said.

Up to 17% reduced risk of death per 1 MET

The findings of the study speak clearly, those with low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness are far more likely to die early or develop chronic conditions like heart disease later in life. But the authors were quite specific, they put a number on fitness.

“Specifically, we found that every 1-MET increase in CRF, which is the amount of energy used when sitting quietly, reduced the risk of early death from any cause and heart failure by 11-17% and 18%, respectively,” said Prof. Tomkinson.

How do you improve by 1 MET?

If you’re confused about what this MET is and how do you improve it, let’s translate this into cycling speak. MET is a unit used to estimate the amount of energy expended during physical activity expressed as oxygen consumed per body weight per minute. Sounds familiar? Yes, it’s very similar to VO2 max. Both MET and VO2 are measured in ml of oxygen so there’s a simple conversion rate:

1 MET = 3,5 ml/kg/min

This means that if your VO2 max is 42 then your MET is 12, simply multiply MET by 3,5 and you get your VO2 max. Now, you can imagine what it means to improve your cardiorespiratory fitness by 1 MET. It means to improve your VO2 max by 3,5 ml/kg/min.

“For most people, a 1-MET increase in CRF can be achieved through a regular aerobic exercise program,” said Prof. Tomkinson. “People can make meaningful improvements through additional moderate physical activity, such as brisk walking, at least 150 minutes a week. And as they improve their fitness, their risk of death and disease will decline,” continued lead author of the study Dr Justin Lang.

For sedentary people, increasing by 1 MET can be relatively easy because they are starting out with a low number. For us cyclists that already exercise regularly, making improvements takes more effort. The good news is that just maintaining a high VO2 max or MET means maintaining protection against heart disease and death. But for those looking to progress, check out our article on VO2 max specific workouts.