The exceptions to the breakaway scenario are stage 4, a 24 km ITT, and stage 5, a gruelling mountain stage featuring 4,226 metres of altitude gained over its 150 km. That should be sufficient for the always odds-on favourite, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), to demonstrate his superiority.
That final stage consists of three loops of the so-called Col de la Croix circuit, which means three climbs of that redoubtable mountain, but only the last two start at its foot. The lesser climb, which comes at the beginning of the stage, is a Category 2 ascent (3.9 km @ 8.8%) and should already eliminate some chaff from the wheat. The two ascents of the entire mountain are rated Beyond Category (HC) (19.1 km @ 7%), and will probably shrink the peloton to a precious few. And then comes a backbreaker of a finale.
That for-some-unknown-reason uncategorised climb (9.6 km @ 8%) to a not-quite-summit finish should serve as the perfect venue for Pogačar’s inevitable winning attack. If you have any doubts, listen to the man himself. “Training has gone very well, both individually and as a team, and I’m arriving at the Tour de Suisse feeling strong and motivated,” he said. “It’s my first time racing here, which makes it even more exciting.”
You bet he wants to win this race, if only because he hasn’t raced it before and so hasn’t won it yet. Not only is he strong, but he’s coming to the starting line in Sondrio with a very strong team, including Nils Politt and Tim Wellen for the flats and Felix Großschartner, Brandon McNulty, Domen Novak, and recent Giro d’Italia three-stage winner Jhonatan Narváez for the hills and mountains.
And don’t be surprised if Narváez wins a breakaway stage or two, or at least gives Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin–Premier Tech), Romain Grégoire (Groupama–FDJ United), Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5),and home favourite Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla)a run for their money – though Pidcock will probably be more interested in the GC and will want to shadow Pogačar in the mountains.
Good luck with that. Pidcock is a terrific rider and has made great strides in the past two years, but he’s not going to beat Pogačar. He last raced on May 1, when he finished second in the Frankfurt-Eschborn one-day race. He scored an excellent win in Milano-Torino and a marvellous second place in Milano–San Remo, when he was nipped by Pogačar in the sprint, but despite his third place in last year’s Vuelta, he has yet to prove that he can threaten the Grand Tour favourites. Perhaps he will do well enough on stages 1 to 4 and then minimise his losses on stage 5’s final climb to make the podium.
But there are some other excellent climbers in the race, such as Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious). This year, the 22-year-old Frenchman finished second in the Volta a Catalunya and third in the Tour de Romandie, 2:44 behind Pogačar. He might get closer this year because when he’s fit, he always has one terrific mountain stage in his legs. If he doesn’t lose much time on the early stages, he could fight for a podium spot.
Then there’s veteran Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost), who won this race five years ago and the Giro d’Italia in 2019. He’s 33 now and coming off a disappointing spring campaign disrupted by surgery in early April to treat a perineal cyst, a condition caused by long hours in the saddle. Recovery time took much longer than anticipated and severely delayed his training. As a result, he was forced to miss the Giro d’Italia. He didn’t race again until June 14, in the GP Gippingen. So his form is questionable.
Finally, Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) has had a winless and otherwise undistinguished year, but he will not be racing the Tour de France this year, so he may be in the mood to go for something big in the Tour de Suisse. He won’t beat Pogačar, but if he has regained much of his best form – he won’t have it all; he’s 36 – he may surprise. I’d love to see him make the podium before he goes for one last shot of glory in the Vuelta.
As for van der Poel, I suppose that he will be going for stage wins in the Tour and so will be targeting stages here as well. He last raced in Paris-Roubaix more than two months ago and has been preparing for his Tour start since then. Expect him to be strong early here, battle with Narváez and perhaps Schmid for stage wins and then jog to the finish line over the Col de la Croix.
Some of the “breakaway stages,” especially stage 2, may end in a sprint, which would then be contested by Arnaud De Lie (Lotto Intermarché), Kaden Groves (Alpecin–Premier Tech), Michael Matthews (Jayco AlUla), and Matthew Brennan (Visma–Lease a Bike). So, though the race has been shortened, it still has the potential to give everyone a share of the excitement.
