The favourite
The racing was fine, though both victories were a little too easy because the winners faced relatively weak opposition. Things get more serious this Saturday with the Strade Bianche, which will be the venue for the long-awaited debut of the best rider in the world, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), who has won the race three times (2022, 2024, 2025). To say that he is the overwhelming favourite is like declaring that the sun will rise tomorrow.
And he’s obviously coming into the race in top form. Cyclingnews reported that on March 3, he was on the Cipressa climb (5.58 km @ 4.2%) of the Milan–San Remo, a Monument he has not yet won, and broke the Strava record – his record – for the ascent. He set the record last year, when he tried to break away from all his rivals in the race, but could not shake Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) and van der Poel, who outkicked him in a sprint.
“Strade is a race where I have unforgettable memories,” he was quoted as saying on his team’s website. “My record there is pretty good, and I hope that I will be in a good position again come Saturday. We expect there to be some strong rivals, the startlist is always at a high level for these big races, and it should make things exciting for the fans. It is my first race of the season, and I hope to have a good start. I’ve been cheering on from the couch until now, so I’m excited to get stuck in myself again and finally race.”
A teenage rival
Stuck in? Right. There are some terrific riders in the race, but I don’t think any of them will beat the self-confessed couch potato. His most interesting rival is 19-year-old Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM), who tore apart last Sunday’s Faun-Ardèche Classic in true Pogačar style, with a long solo and a winning margin of nearly 2 minutes.
I do think that Seixas will eventually beat Pogačar, but not on Saturday and probably not this year. Seixas has done exceedingly well so far this year, beating Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) and Pogačar’s teammate João Almeida on the category 1 Alto da Foia summit finish (8.8 km @ 6.2%) on stage 2 of the Volta ao Algarve and finishing second to Ayuso by only 14 seconds in the GC (but 45 seconds ahead of Almeida) – and then winning the Faun-Ardèche in imperious style. But the rider who came in second in that race was Jan Christen, who will be riding in support of Pogačar in the Strade Bianche, and then Seixas is only 19 and still growing into the superstar he will surely be.
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It’s important to remember that Pogačar was 20 when he finished 30th in the 2019 Strade Bianche, and that he had to fail two more times before finally winning the race. The kid is younger and riding in his first Strade. Though he has ridden cyclocross, going full speed on Pogačar’s wheel on some of the gravel climbs and descents, dust blowing into his face, can be daunting. But he doesn’t sound daunted; on the contrary.
“Taking part in Strade Bianche is something I’m really looking forward to,” he said. “It’s one of my favourite races. I’ve been watching it on television since I was twelve or thirteen years old, and I can’t wait to experience it for myself. I think it’s a race that could suit my profile, but the startlist is impressive. The goal, with the help of my teammates, is to see where I stand compared to them.”
That’s what we all want to see. But I think Seixas was talking tongue in cheek; I think that he thinks that he might be able to win.
The others
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) will have the same advantage over Pogačar that Seixas has: he has already raced and is no doubt coming into form. In addition, he is a better rider than he was in 2024 and last year, when the Slovenian GOAT beat him in the race by 3:50 and 1:24, respectively – though his 48th in the Omloop last weekend doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
His coach and Head of Technical Performance at Pinarello-Q36.5, Kurt Bogaerts, told Wielerflits that the poor showing on Opening Weekend was due to the cold weather and the poor clothing choices the team made. But Bogaerts has taken the 26-year-old Briton out on two recons of the Strade course. The goal of the first recon, he said, was “To know what material we want to use, that’s the most important thing. We want to keep up with the evolutions, and we leave nothing to chance.”
I think it’s too soon in the season for Pidcock and that he may simply not be a strong enough rider to beat Pogačar in a Classic. But he is still young enough to improve, so perhaps he will surprise us.
There’s a mystery about Wout van Aert’s form coming into the Strade Bianche, but not about his luck, which remains awful. A broken ankle in January, an illness just before the Omloop, which kept him out of the race, and then, in Tuesday’s Ename Samyn Classic, with 10 km left to ride, as van Aert was preparing to take part in the finish, he suffered a puncture, had to change bikes twice, and finished 60th. Clearly – and justifiably – frustrated, he told Sporza that “there was suddenly glass on the road. That smells like sabotage,” but “not aimed at me.”
As a result, van Aert said in a press release that, though the Strade had been his top priority for the first part of the year, “I’ll arrive at the start in Siena with more question marks than I had hoped. I had marked Strade Bianche as the first real big goal of the season, but we’ll have to see how I feel on Saturday.”
I hope he does well, but perhaps he will be riding defensively and simply trying to get through the race without suffering a new misfortune.
One more rider entered in the race fascinates me, 22-year-old Tibor del Grosso, who will be carrying the hopes of Alpecin–Premier Tech, with van der Poel not at the start. Del Grosso is a terrific cyclo-cross rider, but has only one road race victory in his brief road career. He has all the skills to become an excellent one-day rider, so I’m curious to see his response to Pogačar’s inevitable attack on Saturday.
