Because more watts are satisfying. But they’re not always the goal.
What FTP testing is really for
Functional Threshold Power is not a trophy. It’s a tool, a way to anchor training intensity and track long-term development. Used well, it improves training precision. Used poorly, it creates anxiety, false narratives, and bad decisions.
FTP testing should answer three questions:
- Where should my training zones sit right now?
- Is my aerobic system responding over time?
- Am I pacing and fuelling threshold work correctly?
If it’s not doing at least one of those, the test is noise.
Is January a good time to test?
Sometimes. Not automatically.
January sits at an awkward point in the season:
- Base work may still be underway
- High-intensity systems are often under-trained
- Fatigue can be residual from December consistency rather than freshness
If you test in January, you’re measuring current specificity, not seasonal potential.
January testing makes sense if:
- You’re starting a structured training block
- You need to reset zones after time off
- You’re working with a coach or plan that depends on accurate numbers
January testing is questionable if:
- You’re deep in aerobic base work
- You’re fatigued but consistent
- You’re likely to compare the result emotionally to last season
A “lower” FTP in January is not a failure. It’s often a sign you’re training the right systems.
Which FTP test actually makes sense?
There is no perfect test. There are only appropriate ones.
20-minute test
- Rewards pacing skill and pain tolerance
- Sensitive to anaerobic contribution
- Best for experienced riders who know how to suffer evenly
Ramp test
- Low skill requirement
- Strongly influenced by VO₂max and repeatability
- Can overestimate FTP in punchy riders
Long steady-state (40–60 min)
- Closest to physiological reality
- Logistically hard
- Mentally demanding
For January, simpler is often better. The goal is usable zones, not proving toughness.
Interpreting January results without sabotaging yourself
This is where most riders go wrong. A January FTP test should be read alongside:
- Heart rate response
- Perceived exertion
- Durability over multiple days
- Ability to repeat work
If FTP is flat but:
- Endurance rides feel easier
- Sub-threshold work is more repeatable
- Recovery between sessions improves
You are getting fitter. Even if the number disagrees.
Why more watts isn’t always the goal
Early-season training should prioritise:
- Aerobic depth
- Metabolic efficiency
- Fatigue resistance
Chasing FTP too early often leads to:
- Premature intensity
- Plateaued progression
- Burnout before spring
A rider who holds the same FTP but improves:
- Time to exhaustion
- Decoupling in long rides
- Power late in sessions
… will outperform the rider who forced a January peak.
Better benchmarks than FTP in winter
If you want data without the stress, consider:
- Heart rate drift on long rides
- Average power for a fixed endurance route
- Repeatability of tempo efforts
- Subjective fatigue trends week to week
These reflect usable fitness, not just peak output.
So. Should you test in January?
Test if:
- You need zones
- You can interpret the result calmly
- You’re prepared to train off the number, not chase it
Don’t test if:
- You’re using it as motivation
- You expect validation
- You’re likely to force training to “fix” the result
Fitness is built quietly in winter. FTP tests are just snapshots and January is a foggy lens.
More watts will come. The work that earns them usually doesn’t announce itself with a new PR in the first week of the year.
