The big favourite
She is having a marvellous year, winning the Volta Femenina de la Comunitat Valenciana, the Strade Bianche Donne, the Vuelta España Femenina, the Itzulia Women, the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya Femenina and finishing second, to Marlen Reusser (Movistar), in the Tour de Suisse Women. That could be called Pogačarian domination. To say the least, her first year with FDJ-Suez has been a smash hit so far.
This is hardly a surprise because she now has riders like Juliette Labous and Évita Muzic – who could be team leaders in their own right – riding in support. Labous finished fourth in the TdFF in 2022 and fifth the following year, while Muzic was fourth last year. Add the veteran climber Elise Chabbey to the mix, and you have a very strong foundation for the 28-year-old Dutch rider, who is, hands down, the best woman climber in the world. These are the reasons that Vollering is the odds-on favourite to erase the disappointment of last year, when a crash on stage 5 and the failure of her then SD Worx–Protime team to help her finish the stage was fatal to her chances. That she made it so close at the end is a testament to her toughness and climbing ability.
She’ll need her best legs in this year’s edition of the race, which features a lot of tough-to-merciless climbs, including the category 1 Col du Béal (10.2 km @ 5.6%) on stage 6, a finish atop the legendary leg-killer Col de la Madelaine (18.6 km @ 8.1%) on stage 8, the queen stage, and the HC Col de Joux Plane (11.6 km @ 8.5%) on the final stage. Vollering is not only happy about the support she has received from the team on the road, but she is also motivated by its spirit. The new FDJ-Suez jersey features a heart bearing the inscription “all light is born from a shadow, all success is built on the foundations of accepted setbacks and hard work.”
“The team’s values have an essential influence on our daily lives as athletes, in the hardest moments as well as the most beautiful,” Vollering said. “They remind us why we have chosen this way of life, this vision of life. It’s an outfit that embodies our state of mind: behind-the-scenes efforts contribute to our success and our influence.”
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And the others
But she’ll need more than pretty words to win, for she is facing stiff opposition, which is led by the much-improved Reusser, her former teammate, who is having the best year of her career after moving to Movistar this year from SD Worx–Protime. She finished second to Vollering in the Volta Femenina de la Comunitat Valenciana, second to her by 1:01 in the Vuelta España Femenina, won the Vuelta a Burgos Feminas by more than a minute over Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ), won the Tour de Suisse Women, won the Swiss national ITT championship and finished second, to Longo Borghini, in the Giro d’Italia Women. That’s a lot of racing, especially the Giro, which ended only two weeks ago. And she is 33 years old. It’s asking a lot to do two hard Grand Tours in such a short time. Which will only make it more of an accomplishment if she wins.
That also goes for Longo Borghini, who is also 33 but has ridden a less charged schedule than Reusser. She finished sixth in the first TdFF, in 2022, did not finish the race in 2023 and did not ride it last year. It will be quite a feat if she finishes on the podium this year.
Last year’s TdFF winner, Niewiadoma, has had a disappointing year, chalking up only one win, the Polish national road race championship one month ago. She finished third in the Tour de Suisse Women, 1:56 behind Reusser, and finished nearly 6 minutes adrift of Vollering in the Vuelta España Femenina. Unless circumstances go her way, as they did last year, she won’t repeat her success of last year.
The most intriguing rider in the race is the reigning world champion, Lotte Kopecky, who has targeted the TdFF this year. Unfortunately, her preparations were disrupted by a back problem, which forced her to drop out of the Giro after stage 5. Uncharacteristically, she has won only two races this year, the Tour of Flanders and the Belgian national ITT championship. On the other hand, she is the most rested of the GC contenders. However, she is not a great climber. In her best TdFF result, in 2023, she finished second, more than 3 minutes behind Vollering. On the most important climb of that race, to the summit of the Tourmalet, she finished a creditable 3:32 behind her then SD Worx teammate Vollering. She might do better this year, but not better enough.
Someone else might come close to these five favourites, just because cycling has turned into a sport of surprises, but I doubt it. But whoever wins, this longest and most difficult of TdFFs so far should provide some dramatic competition and cracking racing.
