It’s an easy enough race to handicap because Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), who has won the Tour three times, is the favorite of every race he starts, just because he is the best rider in the world. This time there is additional background information to solidify that status. Two-time Tour winner Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike) and double Olympics champion Evenepoel (Soudal QuickStep) are both returning from injuries and their fitness remains unproven.
The Dane most recently crashed in Paris-Nice, on March 13, suffering a concussion and other, lesser injuries, and has not raced since. Evenepoel returned in spring from a serious crash he had in December and raced well, but he was clearly not at his best, as he himself admitted. Both riders are depending on their training and this race to help them win the Tour. For them, the Dauphiné is only a stepping-stone – though they would mind winning it.
Pogačar had a full spring Classics schedule, ending with victories in La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. He was in top form then and will come to the Dauphiné near top form. He will probably want to win it, as he wants to win every race he rides in. And there will be added motivation from the humiliation his team suffered in the Giro d’Italia. Observers are still scratching their heads and beards over the way UAE and its young, and belated, leader, Isaac del Toro, managed to lose the race – to Visma–Lease a Bike’s Simon Yates.
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According to Visma team boss Richard Plugge, their rivalry is a friendly and respectful one. “[UAE Team Principal and CEO] Mauro Gianetti and I just spoke, and we have a lot of respect for each other,” Plugge told Cyclingnews after the Giro. “They push us to become better, and I think, I hope, we do it with his team and him, and that’s what makes sports really beautiful. You win something, then you lose something, and you think next time, ‘I have to beat him’, but it’s all out of respect, and that’s what makes this sport, and every sport, incredibly nice.”
That doesn’t mean, however, that they don’t want to beat their rivals with every fiber in their being or that UAE and Pogačar wouldn’t love to demoralize Vingegaard and Visma in the Dauphiné – but with respect, of course. It is the nature of athletes to want to avenge a bitter defeat, so I think the Slovenian will ride to win and probably will.
In any case, Visma is coming into the race sky-high with confidence from the Giro, and Vingegaard sounded optimistic when he recently answered questions at his altitude training camp for TNT Sports. “Last year, I felt like I could fight for the win, but in the end that clearly wasn’t the case,” he said about his return to the Tour after barely recovering from a crash at the Tour of the Basque Country. “This year, I feel completely different. It’s both how my body is responding to the training and also how I feel about myself.”
And he said that he loved training for the Tour and enjoyed his rivalry with Pogačar. “I’ve always enjoyed the process of trying to reach my absolute best form for the Tour de France. The Tour is always the ultimate goal, and I love putting in the hard work during these training camps.” Regarding his arch-rival, he added: “If I was racing without him, it wouldn’t be the same, and I hope he feels the same. I actually enjoy having a rival like him.”
And we do too. So whatever the motivation and goals of the three riders, this edition of the Dauphiné should be special – also because it will be the last race of 34-year-old Romain Bardet, who has had an excellent 14-year career with four Tour stage wins and a Tour King of the Mountains victory.
I’m also curious to see how two possible future Tour contenders – Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) – will fare in the race. The 21-year-old Martinez is finally beginning to live up to his promise with his new team, with an excellent stage victory in the Tour de Romandie and a brave second place in the GC behind Pogačar’s probable lieutenant in the Tour, João Almeida. Martinez will only get better.
The 24-year-old Lipowitz has been riding in the shadow and the service of Primož Roglič. With his team leader now recovering from a crash-filled Giro and preparing for the Tour, Lipowitz may be encouraged to finally go all-out for himself and present himself as a possible successor to the Slovenian.
While the race can be seen as a preview of the Tour, don’t count on it to tell you who will win it. Since 2017, only two winners of the Critérium du Dauphiné have gone on to a Tour de France victory: Geraint Thomas in 2018 and Vingegaard in 2023.
