Like Pogačar, Evenepoel is scheduled to ride all three Classics as part of his preparation for the Tour de France. He’ll primarily be racing for fitness and, given the ordeal he endured during recovery, will probably not take many risks. As he put it in a social media post, recovering from the injuries he sustained on December 3—when he crashed into the door of a van—was “the hardest battle of my life so far. Mentally and physically, I can honestly say that I have been under the ground and really doubted a lot of my future.” So, no one can fault him for riding cautiously until his confidence returns.
Still, it’s a shame. After the thrilling Monument battles between Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) in recent weeks, it would be fascinating—and no doubt exciting—to see Pogačar challenged by another superstar. And who knows? Maybe I’m underestimating Evenepoel, and he’ll give the Slovenian a real run for his money in one or two of these races. But almost certainly not in the Amstel Gold.
The two have clashed in at least two one-day races previously: the 2024 World Championships Road Race, where Pogačar claimed victory and Evenepoel finished fifth; and last year’s Il Lombardia, where Evenepoel finished second behind Pogačar—a whopping 3:16 adrift. But that’s a climber’s Monument and tailor-made for the world champion. They also faced off in the 2023 Liège–Bastogne–Liège, but Pogačar crashed out early. Evenepoel has won that race twice, and that may be where he gives Pogačar a real challenge next week.
So, if not Evenepoel, then who? Probably not Pidcock, who lost to the Slovenian by 2:14 in the 2023 edition. Perhaps Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike)? After all, he won the 2021 edition in a sprint over Pidcock. But based on his recent performances in the Monuments dominated by Pogačar and van der Poel, van Aert either hasn’t fully recovered—physically or mentally—from the severe knee injury he suffered during last year’s Vuelta, or his best days are behind him. That said, at 30, that still seems unlikely.
In any case, the race will almost certainly not end in a sprint. It features no fewer than 34 short climbs of varying gradients over its 255.9 km route. That terrain might favor a puncheur like Pidcock, van Aert, or Evenepoel’s teammate Max Schachmann, who is in fine form, having finished third in the recent Itzulia Basque Country behind João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) and Enric Mas (Movistar). But it also suits a super climber like Pogačar, who might take off solo on the steep Kruisberg (0.5 km at 9.2%, with ramps approaching 20%) with about 46 km to go, or wait until the final climb—the Cauberg (0.6 km at 6.7%)—to make his winning move.
Any scenario featuring a different winner seems highly unlikely.
