A month later, his UAE Team Emirates–XRG team finally confirmed that he would skip the E3 Saxo Classic in favor of Paris-Roubaix, a race that – he freely admitted – did not suit him. The reason is that there are no hard climbs in it, as there were in the Tour of Flanders. Pogačar is the best climber of all the prominent one-day riders, an advantage he will not have next Sunday. What Paris-Roubaix has instead are cobblestones, 30 sectors of pavé covering a total of 55.3km of the 259.2km course from Compiègne to the Roubaix Velodrome.
The cobblestones are unforgiving on the best of days – dusty, uneven, hard on the body and the bike – and if there’s moisture on the course, it could be a little Armageddon. And the latest weather forecast calls for occasional rain and drizzle for Sunday, so the riders could be in for a very hard day. Let’s hope the forecast is wrong.
The most important cobblestone sectors, based on past races, are the Trouée d’Arenberg (look for sudden gaps in the peloton, flats and other mechanicals) and the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which comes 15 km from the finish and could be the scene of the decisive breakaway, as it was in 2023, when Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike) punctured there and Mathieu van der Poel raced away to win the first of his two consecutive victories in the iconic race.
The Alpecin-Deceuninck leader is the defending champion and will be going for his third consecutive victory in the most brutal of Monuments, a feat not accomplished since Francesco Moser did it in 1978–80.
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That should be motivation enough for the Dutchman, but he no doubt would also love to avenge his defeat in the Tour of Flanders, where he finished third. A day or two after that race, he divulged that he’d been ill with a cold during the preceding week, had been on antibiotics and was not able to train.
To his credit, he did not offer that as an excuse. “It was clear that Tadej was the strongest,” he said. But it was also clear that he was not at his best, for he crashed with other riders on a stretch of smooth, flat road and had to race hard to catch up to the peloton. Van der Poel almost never crashes, certainly not on dry pavement, as he is a superb bike-handler. So we can expect an improvement over his Flanders performance, which was exceptional for a mere mortal, but not for him.
His bike-handling ability is an advantage he has over Pogačar, as is his knowledge of the course and prior success. He knows how to ride these cobbles. He is also much heavier than the Slovenian, 75 kg versus 66 kg according to official data. That is an advantage on this surface. And, finally, the climbs are insubstantial compared to those in the Tour of Flanders, so Pogačar will have to beat him by being faster and smarter.
The lack of climbs is the reason that this is a difficult race to handicap. Yes, for the reasons stated above, Van der Poel should be considered the favorite. On the other hand, Pogačar does have a very strong team to support him, which includes two riders, Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch, who have finished second in the race. However, Van Aert’s teammate Dylan van Baarle won the race in 2022, ahead of … Van Aert.
The best strategy for Pogačar would be to go on a long solo run, at a pace that only Van der Poel can match, and then beat him in the sprint. But based on the Tour of Flanders, Pogačar distanced his rivals on the climbs and wore them out, finally racing away for his victory. That would probably be Van der Poel’s strategy too. He won last year by going on a 60 km breakaway and winning the race by 3 minutes. But they may not be able to have the race all to themselves here. Here is a list of the reasons why:
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Wout Van Aert
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Mads Pedersen (Lidl–Trek)
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Jonathan Milan (Lidl–Trek)
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Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers)
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Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Van Aert finished fourth in the Tour of Flanders and looked close to his old self again. Barring another mechanical, he just might have the legs to keep up with Pogačar and/or Van der Poel and beat them in a sprint. In addition, he is probably the freshest of the main contenders and will also be stronger than he was last Sunday.
Pedersen is in the form of his life, having won Gent–Wevelgem and finishing second in the Tour of Flanders and the E3 Saxo Classic. This race should finally suit him. I say ‘finally’ because the Dane has ridden it seven times, with his best finishes a fourth in 2023 and third last year.
He suffered on the climbs of Flanders, but he won’t face that problem here. But is he strong enough to ride with the two favorites if they take off with, say, 60 km left to ride? Maybe we’ll find out.
As for Ganna, who finished second in Milan–San Remo, ahead of Pogačar but behind Van der Poel, the absence of tough climbs will work in his favor. His best finish in the race, of four attempts, was a sixth place in 2023. The Italian has shown himself to be an excellent Classics rider, but hasn’t proven that he is of the caliber of the race favorites. And he doesn’t strike me as a man for the cobbles.
As for the sprinters on the above list – Milan and Merlier – if they manage to accompany the favorites into the final kilometer, then so will Van der Poel’s teammate Jasper Philipsen, who finished second the last two years. But this will not be a sprinter-friendly race, since the favorites’ teams will be riding very fast to drop the sprinters or at least take the starch out of their legs.
So, who will win? My head says Van der Poel, my heart says Van Aert, I would put my money on Pedersen at odds of 6-1, but it will probably be Pogačar.
