Still, there are plenty of marquee names in the race, beginning with Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), who won the race in 2023 by 0:06 over Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep). Roglič has also won five Grand Tours and 19 Grand Tour stages, but the one victory that he wants most of all, the Tour de France, continues to elude him. This means that everything he is doing this spring is being done with the July 5 Grand Départ in mind.
He was far from his best in his first race of the year, the Volta ao Algarve, finishing eighth in the GC, 0:53 behind the winner, Vingegaard, but he should be in better form now. That doesn’t mean that he is out to win it. His ideal preparation would see his form peak in July, and his schedule, as of this moment, includes only one more race before the Tour, the Giro d’Italia.
In that race, he will be facing the maturing, in-form UAE Team Emirates–XRG rider Juan Ayuso, who is also riding in Catalonia. The 22-year-old Spaniard is having a fantastic spring, winning two minor one-day races before dominating Tirreno-Adriatico, where he bested the resurgent Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) by 0:35 after a powerful climb on the penultimate stage.
Ayuso appears to have replaced teammate João Almeida as UAE’s ‘other’ Grand Tour rider behind Tadej Pogačar because Almeida has so far failed to win a Grand Tour, with only a single Grand Tour stage win to his credit. The younger rider seems to be hungrier than his Portuguese teammate, or at least that is apparently what the team’s directors have decided. Ayuso will have most of his team’s big guns at his disposal, such as Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov, and the irrepressible Marc Soler.
Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep) finished seventh in Paris-Nice, a well-beaten 1:05 behind Ayuso, but that was his first race of the year and he should be in better form now. With his Grand Tour tasks limited to working for team leader Remco Evenepoel, Landa will see races such as Catalunya as a chance for some glory late in his career. And he finished second in last year’s edition of this race, a well-beaten 3:41 behind Pogačar. Ayuso is no Pogačar, but then Landa is no Ayuso.
Ben O’Connor rode himself into the role of a Grand Tour podium candidate with an excellent second in last year’s Vuelta a España, 2:36 behind Roglič, and was rewarded with a new contract from a new team, Jayco-AlUla. But he finished 14th in Paris-Nice, a whopping 8:51 behind the winner, Visma–Lease a Bike’s Matteo Jorgenson. Apparently, he is having trouble getting used to his new team, or something. In any case, he is not the pure climber that Ayuso and Roglič are and is probably saving himself for the Tour.
But I do like the chances of Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost), though he is taking his time rounding into form. He finished 2:26 behind Ayuso in Paris-Nice and then rode the one-day Milano-Torino, finishing 16th at 0:52 behind another UAE rider, Isaac del Toro. Carapaz always keeps his form cards close to his chest and then suddenly unleashes a powerful ride to take a surprise win. You never know with him, so anything is possible.
The race marks the return of the 2019 Tour de France winner Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers), who crashed in the Clásica Jaén on February 17 and broke his collarbone. He’ll be accompanied by another Tour de France winner, Geraint Thomas, who is riding in his final season. Bernal finished third in last year’s edition, more than 5 minutes behind Pogačar, and figures not to do much better this year.
The race should be decided on the climb to the summit at the Santuari de Queralt (5.9km @ 7.5%) on Saturday’s stage 6, which includes an HC climb, the Coll de Pratell (15km @ 6.8%, with the last 5.5km @ 10.9%). We can expect Ayuso, Roglič, and maybe Carapaz to fight it out on the final climb, and the young Spaniard should prevail.
