Though the Belgian rider missed several races after suffering a fractured rib in late December, he came back strong in last weekend’s two World Cup races, winning each race by more than a minute. His supremacy this year was so imposing that he often raced by himself most of the time, taking off early in the race and riding on without ever being challenged.
That was the case in in Maasmechelen and Hoogerheide on Saturday and Sunday, when he soloed from lap 2 on Saturday and the first lap on Sunday to win going away. It doesn’t even seem necessary to explain the pick, since everyone who follows the sport knows that the 29-year-old van der Poel is one of the greatest cyclists, if not the greatest, to ever ride off-road. (In case we forget, he also won the World Gravel Championship last year.)
His dominance is so great that questions have been raised about whether he is good for the sport, since his appearance in a race very often foretells the winner so that there is little suspense left, except for who will finish second. But you can’t fault an athlete for being the best. The responsibility of making the racing interesting lies with the riders who are unable to match his power and his exquisite bike-handling skills.
Having said all that, it is possible that Sunday’s race may be more than a foregone conclusion because of the late entry of van der Poel’s eternal rival, Wout van Aert. The three-time cyclocross world champion had originally announced that he would skip the worlds to prepare for his difficult spring road race schedule. But following his ride in Maasmechelen on Saturday, when he finished second to van der Poel after crashing on a muddy descent, he changed his mind.
This suggests that the 30-year-old Belgian just might fancy his chances. In Maasmechelen, he rode very well after crashing and finished well ahead of the rest of the field, though he could make no inroads on van der Poel. He will be helped if the Liévin course is dry. As strong as van Aert is, I think van der Poel has a bit more power, which is necessary when slogging through mud. I think van der Poel will win, but I am rooting for a close race that goes down to the wire.
I believe van Aert’s coach, Mathieu Heijboer, who told HLN: “Mathieu van der Poel has a 90 percent chance of winning the world title, and Wout 10.” He went on to say that van Aert “will be a long way from his peak form. … He is reaching a high base level, but his level at the World Championships will not be much different from the level he had on Saturday in Maasmechelen.”
One rider who might also have challenged van der Poel will probably also not be at his best on Sunday. I mean European and Belgian champion Thibau Nys (Baloise Glowi Lions), who is battling the after-effects of an illness. He had been scheduled to ride in both races last weekend, but did not appear on Saturday. He started on Sunday but faded badly before dropping out early. It’s a huge ask to have him back at peak form so soon after battling an illness.
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Saturday’s Elite Women’s race is more difficult to handicap. Dutch rider Lucinda Brand is the favorite because she has dominated the sport this season, especially the World Cup series. She finished on the podium in all 11 World Cup races, winning three, and finished the competition with 350 points, light-years ahead of second-place Fem van Empel, who had 276.
However, van Empel missed two races because of injury, yet still won one more World Cup race than Brand. In addition, van Empel, who also rides for the Netherlands, devours world championships, having won the last two, at ages 20 and 21! That’s right, she is only 22 years old and hasn’t reached her peak yet. Brand is 35 and may have passed her best. And she was beaten by van Empel in each of the last two worlds by more than a minute. That’s good enough for me. I think the youngster will again dominate her older rival and walk away with her third successive world title. Unless. . .
Unless Blanka Vas pulls off the surprise of the year. The 23-year-old Hungarian rider is not seen as a cyclocross specialist, yet finished third in the World Cup rankings with 253 points, thanks to the final two races. Vas won in Maasmechelen, 1 second ahead of Zoe Backstedt, 12 seconds ahead of Brand, with van Empel finishing sixth at 1:23. And Vas came in second in Hoogerheide, 28 seconds behind Brand, with van Empel in fourth, at 48 seconds.
This sounds as if Vas is peaking at just the right time and may upset the favorites. And spare a thought for 22-year-old Puck Pieterse, who is the reigning world MTB champion and is always in with a winning chance in an off-road race. But I think that on her best day van Empel is untouchable, and she will have her best day on Saturday.