Pogačar Takes Control as Vingegaard Falters in the Mountains

On Saturday’s stage 14, 151.9 km from Pau to Saint-Lary-Soulan, Pogačar took off from the group of GC contenders with 3.5 km left to ride on the final climb to Plan d’Atet (10.6 km @ 7.9%) and left the leader of Visma–Lease a Bike floundering in his wake. He finished 39 seconds ahead of Vingegaard and took 1:10 from Remco Evenepoel (Soudal – Quick Step).

It was a different scenario on Sunday’s difficult stage 15, 197.7 km from Loudenville to Plateau de Beille, but the result was the same. This time, Vingegaard rode away from the small group of yellow jersey rivals with 10.5 km left to ride on the brutal final climb (9.8 km @ 8.1%) but Pogačar rode with him and stuck to his rear wheel until 5.3 km from the finish line, Vingegaard asked his riding companion to take a turn at the front.

Pogačar obliged but not in the way the Dane had foreseen. He stepped on the gas and soon had a lead of 60 m. He increased his lead with every pedal stroke and crossed the line 1:08 ahead of the Dane, with Evenepoel losing 2:51. With the bonus points added, Pogačar has a lead of 3:09 over Vingegaard with one week to go in the race. Evenepoel trails by 5:19 in third place.

The two stages confronted the riders with a total of 8,800 m of climbing, much of it in hot weather, especially on Sunday, so it was the terrain on which the two-time defending champion had always been at his best. But it is now clear that Vingegaard has not fully recovered from all the training he missed due to his crash in the Tour of the Basque Country.

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So, is the Tour over? As good as. For Vingegaard to have a chance, Pogačar has to have a seriously bad day as he had in last year’s Tour. And the Dane needs to find his form of 2022 and 2023. Both are unlikely. The Slovenian looks strong and confident and only six stages remain in the race. If Vingegaard has not found his best form yet, it is unlikely that he will find it on Monday’s rest day.

If Pogačar is to falter, it would have to be on stage 19 or 20, which have a total of 9,000 m of climbing and very long climbs to the finish line. But this now looks like a very long shot.

Pogačar was delighted with his two dominant victories, saying after Sunday’s stage: “I would never imagine this kind of outcome after the second week. I’m super happy with my shape. Today was super hot and it was a really hard day. I always struggle with the heat and today the team did a super good job with cooling me down and everything.”

He cited Visma’s strategy on Sunday of racing hard throughout the difficult stage but said he was never troubled. “I just kept my mind on keeping myself cool and hydrating and eating enough. When we [came] to the bottom of the last climb, I was at the limit a little bit when Jonas tried to drop me but I could see that he was starting to suffer a little bit. When he tried to drop me the last time, I could see that he doesn’t have the legs to go to the top, so I tried on my own. It was super, super tough in the final but it paid off.”

Visma’s strategy of racing hard in the heat on the most difficult stage of the Tour seems questionable in retrospect. They had intended to wear Pogačar down and then for Vingegaard to ride away on the Plan de Beille. But the result of their tactics was that two of their three mountain support riders, Tiesj Benoot and Wilco Kelderman, were spent when they reached the final climb, and it was up to the remarkable young American Matteo Jorgenson to continue the frantic pace up the mountain.

But he could go no farther than 10.5 km from the finish line and the strategy ended up playing into Pogačar’s hands. Perhaps they were over-confident about Vingegaard’s form and badly underestimated the Slovenian two-time Tour winner. In any case, no matter what strategy they used, the result would have been the same.

Vingegaard tried to remain upbeat but he as much as conceded the race to his rival. “I can be super happy with how I rode, with how the team rode,” he said on Sunday. “Tadej was just better, so congrats to him. To be honest, I cannot be disappointed.”

Asked if he still had a chance to win the race, he said, “It looks pretty difficult now. He can still have a bad day – we’ve seen that in the past two years. But, of course, if he keeps that level all the way, it will be hard.”

One final, depressing note. On the final climb of Saturday’s stage 14, a spectator who was reportedly drunk, threw fries into Pogačar’s face as he rode past about 2 km from the finish and then repeated his repugnant behaviour when Vingegaard arrived. According to Le Parisien, the man was taken into custody and spent the night in jail, sleeping it off.

Stage 15 Results