Who will make history?
It is a race that requires patience, intelligence, stamina and, because of its vicious cobblestones – it’s not called the “Hell of the North” for nothing – superb bike-handling skills. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin–Premier Tech) has all those qualities and has won the race the past three years. If he wins it again this year, he will be the first rider to win the race four times. He stood before a similar record in the Tour of Flanders, but couldn’t keep up with Pogačar, who has won all three races he has entered this year.
Paris-Roubaix is now the only Monument the Slovenian has not won. If he wins on Sunday, he will join Eddy Merckx, Roger De Vlaeminck and Rik Van Looy in the elite club of riders who have won all five Monuments (Milan–San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia). It will also make him eligible to become the only rider to win all five in a calendar year.
That is considered the most difficult feat in professional cycling. Only two riders have won as many as three Monuments in a calendar year, Merckx, who did it four times (1969, 1971, 1972, 1975), and Pogačar, who did it last year. Oh boy, does Pogi want to win all five this year. You can tell by the way he’s riding that he is on a mission, and that is the mission. But it’s not going to be easy.
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Why is it hellish
The race has 30 cobbled sections, differing in difficulty and making up 54.4 km, or about a fifth, of the 258.3 km course. The most difficult cobbles can eat up a bicycle and toss about a rider like a dinghy in a storm, especially if they are wet. The weather forecast calls for cool temperatures with moderate winds of 15–20 km/h, overnight showers and drizzle during the day of the race. Depending on the rainfall, there could be a lot of mud, the cobbles will be treacherously slick, and the crosswinds could lead to decisive gaps on the flats.
There is a reason that Pogačar avoided the race until last year, when van der Poel beat him by 1:18. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) finished third, at 2:11, just ahead of Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike) and Pogačar’s teammate Florian Vermeersch. Pogačar was racing with van der Poel with about 38 km to go when he misjudged a tight corner on cobblestone sector 9, slid off the road and fell into the fencing. He was never able to make up the time he lost in the incident.
Who can win?
There’s no doubt that he and his team went to school in that race and have made the necessary adjustments. I assume he has practised riding over wet cobbles. Van der Poel is the greatest cyclocross rider of all time, having won the world championship a record eight times. That gives him an enormous advantage in the race. But he doesn’t seem to be the van der Poel of old, perhaps because of the lingering effects of a crash in the Milan–San Remo, in which he injured fingers on his left hand. Pogačar has now beaten him in two Monuments in a row. He will want some revenge on Sunday.
As for the rest, van Aert, who finished fourth in the Tour of Flanders, might make it onto the podium, and Pedersen, who finished fifth, might beat him to it. Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), who was third in that race, will not be at the start line. Paris-Roubaix really isn’t his cup of tea. I’m looking for a surprise in the race this year, especially if the conditions are difficult.
I like long shots, and if I were to bet on the race, I’d put my money on Vermeersch, who is having a terrific year and finished second in the race in 2021, ahead of van der Poel, and fifth last year. He’s a former cyclocross rider and knows how to ride in bad weather.
The women’s race favourites
In the women’s race, I can see only two possible winners. The favourite must be last year’s winner, Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (Visma–Lease a Bike). She finished a good second in the Tour of Flanders behind Demi Vollering (FDJ United–SUEZ), who is not riding on Sunday, and will only be stronger because of that race. Lorena Wiebes (Team SD Worx–Protime) is the best female one-day racer in the world. At age 27, she has won a total of 123 races. She crashed out of the Tour of Flanders, but was apparently not seriously hurt. She has finished 49th, seventh and third in the last three editions of Paris-Roubaix. She seems to be getting the hang of it.
As a strong outsider, how about Elise Chabbey, who won the Strade Bianche Donne and was an essential part of Demi Vollering’s Tour of Flanders win? She’s a strong rider and has great form. But if conditions deteriorate, anything can happen.
