April fool?
But not so Evenepoel and Red Bull. When they announced their superstar’s schedule at the start of the season, Sunday’s Tour of Flanders – a Monument and one of the most prestigious races in the sport – wasn’t on the list. So imagine everybody’s surprise when Remco went on social media on Wednesday to announce, in dramatic fashion, that he would be riding in the race after all. No doubt intended, as the announcement was made on April 1, shock and surprise were followed by confusion and the sneaking suspicion that it was all an April Fool joke.
But, no, it wasn’t. Evenepoel will be joining Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin–Premier Tech) and Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike) in what looks to be one of the most exciting and superstar-packed races in a long time. Apparently, the decision to participate in the race was not a late decision, as many have assumed, but had been decided more than three months ago, according to team boss Ralf Denk.
“We deliberately kept it secret to create a special moment for the fans – and to reveal it as a surprise on April 1,” he said in a press release. “The fact that we were able to keep this internal for more than 100 days speaks to the cohesion and unity of this team.”
Whatever the timing, one has to ask why they would keep it secret in the first place and then make the announcement in such a dramatic fashion. The answer might be in this article, because look how much of it I have spent writing about Evenepoel and not Pogačar, van der Poel and van Aert. On the other hand, it helps explain Evenepoel’s poor climbing in the recent Volta a Catalunya, in which he finished fifth. If Flanders has been on the program from the start, the training emphasis would have been on Flanders-like short, steep climbs, such as the Oude Kwaremont (2.2km @ 4%, max. 11.6%) or the Paterberg (360m @ 12.9%, max. 20.3%), rather than the long climbs of the Catalunya.
Who will win?
After such a hullabaloo, Evenepoel had better win the race or be the real fool of his own April joke. He and the team certainly know that, which means they all believe that he’s got a very good chance. And he did look good in the Catalunya when the climbs were not longer than 3km. And even then, he was a strong domestique for teammate Florian Lipowitz, who finished third in the GC. At his best, he can at least compete with the likes of Pogačar and van der Poel. If he can beat them is another question.
He beat the Slovenian in the 2022 Road Race World Championship, a race van der Poel did not finish, and in the 2023 Liège-Bastogne-Liège, when Pogačar crashed out. Evenepoel beat van der Poel in the 2024 Olympics road race and in that year’s World Championship. All of which doesn’t mean anything since every race is different and the Tour of Flanders is unique.
Horse races are usually handicapped by using past performances (PPs). Van der Poel has won the race three times: in 2020 (over van Aert in a sprint), in 2022 (beating Pogačar and others in a sprint) and 2024. Pogačar has won the race twice: in 2023 (by 0:16 over van der Poel and 1:12 over van Aert) and last year (by 1:01 over both van der Poel and van Aert). Van Aert has never won, though he has often tried; he has made the race a priority of 2026. Evenepoel has never ridden in it.
Based on these PPs, I’d give the advantage to Pogačar, but also because van der Poel has not looked very van der Poel-ish this spring. He was chased down in the E3 Saxo Classic and only won because the riders who had chased him down simply froze. And he finished eighth in Milan–San Remo after injuring his finger in a crash.
Pogačar is undefeated so far this year, easily winning Strade Bianche and then claiming an astonishing victory in Milan–San Remo, when he crashed late in the race, caught up to the peloton and beat Tom Pidcock in a sprint, with van Aert finishing fourth. He seems to be on a mission this year, perhaps because he is eager to retire soon and wants to go out at the very top of his game.
Van Aert has come back to at least the form he had before crashes disrupted his career. But that form wasn’t good enough to beat van der Poel or Pogačar in this race. He was largely on his own in Wednesday’s Dwars door Vlaanderen, when Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) passed him 150 meters from the finish. This time, if there is a breakaway and if he is strong enough to stay with it, then he could be involved in the finish. And he could plausibly win if his sprint is fast enough. But that makes too many ifs.
As for Evenepoel, who knows? He’s fit, he’s strong and he’s fast. And he has risked his reputation with that April Fool stunt. But can he keep it together for 271km and over 16 cobbled climbs? We’ll find out Sunday. The weather forecast for the day is mixed, with a chance of showers during the day that could make all those cobbles real slippery.
A stacked field also in the women’s race
Demi Vollering (FDJ United–SUEZ), Lotte Kopecky and Lorena Wiebes (both SD Worx–Protime), Pauline Ferrand-Prévot and Mariane Vos (both Visma–Lease a Bike), Marlen Reusser and Lianne Lipert (Movistar), Puck Pieterse (Fenix–Premier Tech), Eliza Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ).
Everybody who’s anybody in women’s cycling will be at the start line on Sunday; only Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney (CANYON//SRAM zondacrypto) is missing, as she is recovering from a crash in Milan–San Remo. Kopecky will be the favorite, having already won the race three times (2022, 2023, 2025). If she wins again, she will hold the record of most wins in the race, unless van der Poel also wins Sunday, in which case they will have four each. Longo Borghini has won it twice (2015, 2024) and Vos won in 2013.
The wild cards in the race are Vollering and Ferrand-Prévot. Vollering has raced Flanders five times, finishing second in 2023 behind Kopecky. She is in the form of her life and lost Wednesday’s Dwars door Vlaanderen by an eyelash to Reusser. Barring accident or mechanical, she should be there at the finish.
Ferrand-Prévot finished a close second to Kopecky last year, but this is her first race of the year. On the other hand, last year’s Tour de France avec Zwift showed that she knows how to train for a big race. I think that, unless she makes a mistake, she will win with a breakaway on the cobbled Oude Kwaremont or the steep Paterberg. But anything at all can happen in a race that should provide enough fireworks for five New Year’s celebrations.
