Van der Poel is strong and driven
In addition to it being the easiest option, I also base my decision on the way he has been riding since winter. He won every cyclocross race he entered, including his record eighth world championship, and on the road, he has won every race he has tried to win: the Omloop Nieuwsblad, with a 16 km solo, and two stages of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, with grit, power, and perseverance.
And he powered up most of the only climb (8.4 km @ 4.6%) of Sunday’s final stage and continued leading the peloton for dozens of kilometres, despite pleas from his team to slow down because he had dropped Philipsen. That was as impressive a ride as any of the others, and it was clearly a prep for this Saturday’s Milano–San Remo, which he obviously wants to win for a third time.
I can’t see anyone beating him, because not only is he in great form, but he is more win-driven, more willing to suffer for the victory, than I’ve ever seen him. And he seems very confident. “I feel good and have had good preparation,” he said before stage 6 of the Tirreno-Adriatico. “I am satisfied with my legs and the feeling this week; that is all I needed. But whether the [Milano–San Remo] winner was riding here is still a question mark. It is often the same names that come to the fore: myself, Wout, and Ganna.“ But not, you will have noticed, Tadej Pogačar – although he did mention the rider many consider his strongest rival. “It’s only a matter of time before he wins that race,” he said. But not yet, he implied.
Pogačar comes with strong support
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates–XRG) has competed in five editions of the race and has finished 12th (2020), fifth (2022), fourth (2023), and third (2024 and 2025). He desperately wants to win it. He has won three of the five Monuments, with this race and Paris-Roubaix still missing from his Palmares. Only three riders have won all five, and they are all Belgian: Rik Van Looy, Roger De Vlaeminck, and Eddy Merckx. Boy, would Pogi love to belong to that exclusive club.
And he surely will one day, but not this year, and probably not while van der Poel is still riding. Why? Because the short, relatively gentle climbs on the course don’t favour the Slovenian’s explosivity. They are simply not steep enough for him to open gaps over the better riders. And van der Poel is climbing better than he ever has and still has a great finishing kick. In the last three editions, Pogačar has been outsprinted by van der Poel, Filippo Ganna, and Wout van Aert (2023); Philipsen and Michael Mathews (2024); and van der Poel and Ganna (2025). So, if he can’t ride away from his rivals, the key to his winning the race at last is to improve his sprinting – and he probably has. But so has van der Poel. No one could get past him in the Tirreno-Adriatica once he put the hammer down.
Still, this is Tadej Pogačar, the rider who, after losing the Tour de France two years in a row to Jonas Vingegaard, found another level and hasn’t lost it since. There’s no doubt that he and his team have analysed to death the past few editions of the race and made the appropriate adjustments. One of them is giving him the strongest possible support team: Isaac del Toro, Domen Novak, Jan Christen, Brandon McNulty, Florian Vermeersch, Felix Großschartner. That is the cream of the crop.
Presumably, they will ride full gas for much of the 298 km course in an attempt to weaken the legs of Pogi’s rivals, and then lead him up the Cipressa (5.7 km @ 4.1%) or the Poggio di San Remo (3.7 km@ 3.8%), from where he will attack and hope that whoever is able to stay on his wheel won’t have the legs for a full-out sprint. Maybe it will work.
The others
Or maybe there will be more than one rider on his wheel when he jumps, because the race isn’t about only Pogačar or van der Poel (though I think it will be). Take Ganna, for example, who twice finished second in the race (’23 and ’25). The race suits him, and he was strong in the Tirreno, where he won the stage 1 ITT and then stayed with the climbers on stage 4, only to totally misjudge the final sprint, finishing ninth. He’s coming into the race with his form on an upward trajectory. He recently said that he might not wait until the Poggio to play his card, hinting that he might attack on the Cipressa. But it will be tough to attack on any climb if the UAE train is going at full speed.
Another rider who might be with the favourites at the end is Tom Pidcock (Pinarello–Q36.5 Pro Cycling), who won Wednesday’s Milano-Torino in impressive fashion, beating Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Primož Roglič and Giulio Pellizzari (both Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe). He is ready. But is he good enough? That question should also be posed regarding the chances of Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike). Because, all other things being equal, that’s the big question: Who is the best rider in the race? I think it’s too early for van Aert to challenge for the win, and I think van der Poel is the best rider in the race.
The good news for racing fans is that Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) has recovered from the broken wrist he sustained on stage 1 of his first race of the year, the Volta a Valenciana, and will be riding on Saturday. If he were in form, I’d say he had a chance. But this is now his first real race of the season, and the competition is too strong.
Kopecky or Wiebes in the women’s race
The first iteration of the Milano–San Remo Donne was called the Primavera Rosa and was held seven times, from 1999 to 2005. The race returned in 2025 after a 20-year break and was won by Lorena Wiebes. She and her SD Worx–Protime teammate Lotte Kopecky are, in my eyes, favourites for Saturday’s edition. Kopecky just won Wednesday’s Nokere Koerse in a bunch sprint, which is astonishing since she’s not really supposed to be a sprinter. But she beat sprinters Charlotte Kool (Fenix–Premier Tech) and Lara Gillespie (UAE Team ADQ), so she is coming into the race in fine form. And Wiebes – who has already won five times this year – always seems to be in fine form.
Last year’s race ended with a bunch sprint, and this year’s course is the same, so it is fair to assume that it could have the same mass-sprint ending. But Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ) and Puck Pieterse (Fenix–Premier Tech) don’t want to wait for the sprint and will probably attack on the Cipressa or Poggio. But it could still come down to a sprint because both Wiebes and Kopecky can climb these modest peaks and will have the advantage in the final 200 metres. The ageless Marianne Vos could also be involved in the finale, as she is still very quick.
