Will it be a Rüegg repeat?
With stage 2 being just a bit lumpier than the opener (though it has a tough final km that will separate the wheat from the sprinters), the decision will almost certainly be made on the final stage, 126.5 km from Norwood to Campbelltown, specifically on the final of two ascents of the race’s biggest and steepest hill, the category 1 climb to Corkscrew Road (2.5 km @ 8.3%).
The gradient suggests it will be won by a climber, especially since it features ramps up to nearly 17%. But that final climb will be followed by a tricky 5 km descent to the finish line, which offers the opportunity for some technically gifted riders distanced on the climb to come back to the front.
Last year’s winner, 24-year-old Noemi Rüegg (EF Education–Oatly), is back and has a wonderful support rider in reigning world road race champion Magdeleine Vallieres. At least I think that’s how the team will play it, with Rüegg trying to defend her title and her Canadian teammate looking for bigger challenges down the road, such as one of the Ardennes Classics. The defending champion won last year’s race by being the best climber on the last ascent (of two) of Willunga Hill on stage 2, a climb similar in gradient and distance to the Corkscrew Hill ascent they will climb this year instead. So she will presumably start as the favourite.
I was very impressed by Dominika Włodarczyk (UAE Team ADQ) in last year’s Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift, where she finished fourth. She won’t be facing riders of the calibre of the three who beat her in France, so if the 24-year-old Polish rider is in form, she will have a big chance. Włodarczyk also finished fourth in last year’s Tour Down Under and fifth the year before, so she looks ready, at age 24, to go up another level and pick up a big early-season win. And she has top-flight support in Brodie Chapman, Mavi García, Erica Magnaldi, and Paula Blasi.
Other potential winners include Neve Bradbury (Canyon–Sram zondacrypto) and 21-year-old Marion Bunel (Visma–Lease a Bike). And could local heroine Amanda Spratt (Lidl–Trek) win her fourth Down Under title at age 38, in the final season of her career?
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UAE looks too strong to lose
If the women’s race is something of a conundrum, the men’s Santos Tour Down Under, which starts on January 20, looks like a foregone conclusion to me. I just don’t see anyone beating the UAE Team Emirates–XRG juggernaut. For starters, they’ve got the defending champion, Jhonatan Narváez, who won last year by winning the Willunga Hill (3.3 km @ 7.5%) stage in a sprint and by collecting the most bonus points over the five-day race. Narváez is a strong, consistent and reliable rider who has benefited from his 2025 move to UAE.
If he falters, Jay Vine will be around to save the team’s blushes, especially as he appears to be in fine form, having won the Australian national time trial championship on January 8. The team is also bringing Mikel Bjerg and Adam Yates to the dance, which suggests they are taking the race very seriously.
The top challenger looks to be Movistar’s Javier Romo, who finished second last year, while winning a stage, and is hungry for a big win. He’s a talented rider, but can he and Movistar, which won only nine races last year, challenge the UAE power play? I doubt it.
Ben O’Connor (Jayco AlUla) has to be mentioned because he has won four Grand Tour stages, came in second in the 2024 Vuelta and that year’s world championship road race, and this is his home race. But, as usual, O’Connor is looking ahead to the Grand Tours and may not yet be in winning form, though he finished a decent fourth in the Australian ITT championships.
Other possible winners include Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), who finished third last year; Matthew Brennan (Visma–Lease a Bike), who, at 20, looks like a super-talented rider but is still learning; and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious), who usually comes into a new season in fine form and has the explosive climbing style well-suited to the Willunga Hill. However, as the final 2.8 km of the climb averages only 4.8%, it could end in a sprint again, which doesn’t suit him at all.
