Roglič Withdraws, Ayuso Cracks, del Toro Falters on Giro Stage 16

Tuesday’s stage 16 was a miniature version of the exciting spy series that the race has so far been. And what happened on this stage turned the race topsy-turvy and smashed the well-ordered world of UAE Team Emirates–XRG, the team of race leader Isaac del Toro, to pieces.

Where are the favourites?

Here are the current top three of the 2025 Giro GC after stage 16:

Isaac del Toro, UAE Team Emirates–XRG 61:31:56
Simon Yates, Visma–Lease a Bike +0:26
Richard Carapaz, EF Education–EasyPost +0:31

You’ll note that del Toro’s teammate – and pre-race co-favourite – Juan Ayuso is gone from the rankings. That’s because he weakened badly on the third categorised climb of the day, up to Santa Barbara (12.7 km @ 8.3%, with ramps up to 14%), and finished 35th(!), 14:47 behind the stage winner, Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana). He now sits way down in 17th place, 13:27 adrift.

And what about the other pre-race favourite, Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe), who was going through a bad patch? He crashed for the fourth time in the race and dropped out about halfway through the 203 km course from Piazzola sul Brenta to San Valentino. There had already been talk about the Slovenian leaving the race after Sunday’s stage, on which he lost 1:30 to his GC rivals and slipped down to tenth in the standings.

Before the start of the stage, Roglič had admitted that he was facing an uphill battle just to stay in the race. “I don’t think it’s realistic to go for the GC,” he told TNT Sports. “Like I said, I’m fighting to survive. I showed up at the start, but yesterday [Monday], I couldn’t even sit on the bike. Today, I’ll see if I can stay on it.” He couldn’t.

I hate to say it, but to crash four times on a Grand Tour may suggest that, at 35, the five-time Grand Tour winner no longer has the bike-handling skills to win a Grand Tour. Three of the crashes, including Tuesday’s, occurred on pavement made slippery by rain. But if you can’t stay on your bike when the pavement is not ideal… I’ll let you finish the sentence.

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So, is Isaac del Toro finally acknowledged as UAE’s leader?

Yes, by default, after Ayuso’s catastrophic failure, and also by decision of the UAE staff. At a press conference before the start of the stage, team sports director Fabio Baldato and manager Matxin Fernandez anointed the Mexican the squad leader. “Our idea, our goal, is for the team to ride compact around our leader, Isaac,” Baldato said. Fernandez added, “It’s clear that Isaac has shown he is the strongest rider in the race; he’s the leader with 1:20 on the second rider, through his own merits.” The decision was far from unanimous because Ayuso stayed away from the press conference.

But here’s the cruel irony: On the day he was crowned emperor, the young Mexican had no clothes. He just didn’t have the legs when the fight for the race leader’s maglia rosa (pink jersey) kicked off on the endless climb to a mountaintop finish at San Valentino (18.2 km @ 6.1%, with ramps up to 14%). First Simon Yates (Visma–Lease a Bike) took off on the steepest part of the climb, with about 8 km left to ride in the stage, from a small group that included del Toro, Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost) and Derek Gee (Israel–Premier Tech). One kilometre later, Carapaz made his move, and neither del Toro nor Yates was able to follow, as only Gee took off in pursuit.

Yates then had to lead del Toro up the climb, but with 4 km left to race, the Aussie left the weakening Mexican behind and took off after Carapaz in an attempt to save his second place. But I have the feeling that Yates delayed his pursuit of the Ecuadorian because he did not want to take the race lead. The reason? His team is probably not strong enough to defend the maglia rosa for a week. After all, it was Wout van Aert who rode a blistering pace up the mountain for about 5 km in an attempt to weaken Yates’s rivals. But I expect Yates to make a move later this week; he looks fit and strong.

Who won the stage and why was it important?

Christian Scaroni crossed the finish line hand in hand with his XDS Astana teammate Lorenzo Fortunato, who took a stranglehold on the maglia azzurra (blue jersey) for Giro King of the Mountains. Fortunato let his teammate take the stage win to thank him for helping him secure the jersey.

“I’m really happy about it,” Scaroni said, “Me and Fortunato felt really good right from the start, and even when it rained, I felt really good. We dropped all the other riders, and I wasn’t sure if Carapaz would catch us. Then in the last kilometre, I was really suffering, but we stayed together, and this victory is for the team.”

Scaroni’s victory was important for two reasons. First, it was the first Italian stage win in the Giro after 17 winless stages, which ties a record. Naturally, Fortunato is also Italian, as is the third-place finisher, 21-year-old Giulio Pellizzari. Pellizzari was one of Roglič’s most important domestiques and was now allowed – since his leader was no longer in the race – to ride for his own glory. He did and now sits in ninth place in the GC, 4:36 behind del Toro.

From the way he climbed to San Valentino and with Roglič’s other domestiques supporting him, we will doubtless hear more from young Pellizzari. As his fallen leader put it, “He’s shown he has the legs, so he’ll definitely get a chance.”

The second reason the stage victory was important is that both Scaroni and Fortunato ride for XDS Astana, a team fighting to stay in the WorldTour. The one-two finish in the stage assured the Kazakh team of another 310 points, a big step closer to staying at the top level.

So, who’s going to win?

I don’t have the slightest idea. Even if del Toro dug deep and limited his losses on Tuesday, he lost a lot of time over a short stretch of mountain and looked helpless on the climb. There are a lot of mountain stretches left to overcome, and I don’t think he can keep Carapaz, Yates, and perhaps even Gee from passing him in the GC. So, what is UAE Team Emirates–XRG going to do? Look for another leader?

Well, there’s Adam Yates, who sits in 10th, 5:08 behind. But Yates was dropped by van Aert on that last climb, so no. They have the strongest group of domestiques in the race, who will have to work very hard to protect their (new) leader. But domestiques don’t win Grand Tours; champion riders do.

Based on their comparative records, Carapaz – who won the 2019 Giro – should be considered the favourite. He is certainly up for the coming battle. “I think in the last few years, I haven’t had the shape to be here at this moment,” Carapaz said after Tuesday’s stage. “But I think that was always the motivation, to get myself up and go again and try it all once more. I think we’re here now to give a big battle, go for it.”

Based on visuals, Yates looks like the strongest of the two, and he is riding with the self-assured calm of someone with great confidence. However, he didn’t have much to say after the stage, and what he said wasn’t reassuring: “It was hard for me. So we’ll see how the next days go.”

As for Gee, it’s great to see the Canadian riding so well in a big race because he has been slowly building toward an impressive Grand Tour performance. But he trails both Carapaz and Yates by 1 minute, and has never even won a Grand Tour stage, so he must be considered an outsider. But this Giro has been so wild and wacky and unexpected that anything can still happen. Here we are in the third week of a Grand Tour, and any of eight or even ten riders still have a chance to win. Isn’t it great?