The women’s race consists of three stages that are really one-day classics in disguise, with lots of lumps, including some serious short but very steep climbs that should reward the fittest and the strongest rider in the peloton.
The decision will likely be made on Saturday’s stage 2, 115 km from Unley to Willunga Hill, which was the stage 3 finish line last year and on which Sarah Gigante made her winning move. It’s only 3.4 km long but has an average gradient of 7,4%, maxing out at 15.6% – and it will be climbed twice this year. The first ascent should create gaps as well as a breakaway group that will likely contain the winner. It’s on the second climb that all heck will break out and the race winner should come to the fore.
I say this because Sunday’s 105.9 km stage 3 consists of a loop that will be ridden five-and-a-half times, starting and ending in Stirling. The only bumps in this course will not challenge the Willunga Hill winner but it has a tricky uphill finish that could dissuade the fast riders and reward a puncheur.
With Gigante not participating this year, I really, really like Justine Ghekhiere (AG Insurance–Soudal) to win this race. The 28-year-old Belgian won the mountain classification jersey in both the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift and the Giro d’Italia Women last year and should have a big enough lead after stage 2 to resist the inevitable challenges from faster riders in the final stage.
The big challenges to her should come from two Canyon//SRAM riders, the 22-year-old Neve Bradbury, who finished third in this race last year, and the American Chloé Dygert, who finished second in last year’s world championship road race and third in the ITT and just might be a good enough climber to minimise her losses on Willunga Hill and roar to victory in Stirling. Whoever wins, it should make for a thrilling season opener.
The men’s race consists of six stages, the first five containing the short, steep climbs of a spring Classics race. Stage 6 is flat and should come down to a bunch-sprint finish. Wednesday’s stage 3, 147.5 km from Norwood to Uraidla, has a category 1 climb, the Norton Summit (7.9 km @ 4%), at the beginning and a tricky category 2, the Pound Reserve (2.7 km @ 7.8%), that will make for an early test for the GC rivals. But as in the women’s race, the decision should come at the end of the penultimate stage, atop Willunga Hill.
But it’s anyone’s guess who will win the race. The contenders include last year’s winner, Stevie Williams (Israel–Premier Tech), Dylan van Baarle (Visma–Lease a Bike), Jay Vine and Jhonatan Narváez (both UAE Team Emirates–XRG), Australian Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), who is this year’s Australian ITT champion and road race runner-up, and, last but certainly not least, everyone’s sentimental favourite, Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), riding in his final season.
Well, that’s only a half-dozen potential winners but still enough to make for an intriguing and suspenseful race. I’m leaning toward Narváez who, as an INEOS Grenadiers rider, won last year’s one-day Down Under Classic and eight days later finished second behind Williams in this race by only 9 seconds. He’s got the legs and the drive and will want to make an impression on his new team and new road boss, Tadej Pogačar.
But enough talk. Wave the flag and let the season begin!
