Lots of Mountains and no Vingegaard or Pogačar Will Make for a Thrilling Giro

By Siegfried Mortkowitz

With a dynamite opening in Albania and two potentially explosive final two mountain stages, with about 5,000 m of climbing in each before the race ends with a champagne parade in Rome, this year’s Giro d’Italia could be a classic Grand Tour. And with Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard both giving the race a pass in favour of preparing for the Tour de France, there should be suspense until the stage 20 climb of the Colle delle Finestre (18.5 km @ 9.2%, with ramps up to 14%) and the summit finish shortly thereafter on the category 3 climb to Sestriere, near the French border.

That makes for 3,413.3 km of hard riding over three weeks, and the racing begins in earnest with the very first stage, which takes place on Friday, May 9, in the Albanian city of Durres. For the 15th time in its history, the Giro has a foreign start, with Albania kicking off its first-ever Grand Tour. The three Albanian stages include a 13.7 km time trial (stage 2) and two tough climbs in stages 1 and 3, with the category 2 climb (10.7% @ 7.4 km) near the end of stage 3, an early test of the GC favourites.

That group will surely be headed by Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe) who has won 5 Grand Tours including the Giro in 2023. He will have lots of keen rivals, such as Vingegaard’s new Visma–Lease a Bike teammate Simon Yates who has won the Vuelta a España and 10 Grand Tour stages, including 6 in the Giro, and Simon’s twin brother, Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) who, at 32, would surely love to score a Grand Tour win. However, with Vingegaard and Pogačar not in the race, some other teams will be sorely tempted to send their best GC riders to have a shot at the big prize so there may very well be a surprise finish.

Many of the first nine stages are lumpy enough to interest Visma’s Wout van Aert who is coming off a season ruined by injuries and, judging by his recent cyclocross performances, is in excellent form again, as he was in last year’s Vuelta until he crashed out. Stage 8 includes the first serious climb of the race, the category 1 Valico di Santa Maria Maddelena (13.1 km @ 7.4%, with ramps of up to 14%). Stage 9 should be of special interest to van Aert and other one-day specialists as it mimics the classic Strade Bianche with five white gravel sectors and the legendary finish in the Piazza del Campo in Siena. If I had to choose only one of the 21 stages to watch, that one would be it.

 

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Van Aert will be doing double duty in the race as prime leadout rider for his team’s terrific young sprinter Olav Kooij and he will be hunting stage wins in the hope of riding away with the race’s ciclamino, or purple, jersey for the points classification winner. There are at least six stages for sprinters in the race, and if the points competition has not yet been decided, the winner of the sprint in Rome on the last day will be extra exciting.

Stage 10 is a second ITT, 28.6 km from Lucca to Pisa, with a lump at the halfway point that shouldn’t really slow anyone down. Stage 11, 185 km from Viareggio to Castelnovo ne’Monti, has a monstrous category 1 climb in the middle, the Alpe San Pellegrino (14.2 km @ 8.7%, with sections of up to 19%),that could see some GC contenders exposed.

The very hard final week begins with another testing and a very long category 1 climb in the middle of stage 15, the Monte Grappe (25 km @ 5.8%). Stage 16, 199 km from Piazzola sul Brenta to San Valentino, offers three difficult climbs and a summit finish at San Valentino (17.4 km @ 6.4%). This is the stage where the GC competition might take off in earnest.

Stage 19 has a succession of hard climbs but it will probably not prove decisive. If the GC title is still up in the air, as I think it will be, the decision will come on the brutal slopes and gravel sections of the Colle delle Finestre, the highest point of the race, and the subsequent summit finish in Sestriere.

With favourable weather and – let’s cross our fingers – no big crashes, this year’s Giro could turn out to be one of the best ever, both in terms of pure racing excitement and suspense.