{"id":206098,"date":"2026-08-21T10:47:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T10:47:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/?p=206098"},"modified":"2026-08-21T10:48:59","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T10:48:59","slug":"will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-vuelta-by-more-than-10-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/2026\/08\/21\/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-vuelta-by-more-than-10-minutes\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Tadej Poga\u010dar Win the Vuelta by More Than 10 Minutes?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>That&#8217;s the only question regarding the GC contest about which there is some suspense in the upcoming Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a, which kicks off Saturday in Monaco. Stage 1 is a 9.4km time trial that the five-time Tour de France winner may not win, as time trial specialist Joshua Tarling (Netcompany INEOS) is in the race eight days after his younger brother was tragically killed after being hit by a car while racing.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>If Poga\u010dar does win the stage, he may wear the race leader&#8217;s red jersey for the rest of the Vuelta. But if not, barring an accident or illness, his winning this brutal edition of the final Grand Tour of the year is as certain \u2013 no, <em>more<\/em> certain \u2013 than the sun rising tomorrow morning.<\/p>\n<p>Naturally, the UAE Team Emirates\u2013XRG leader said the opposite. &#8220;I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s even worth answering that question,&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/sports\/motorsports\/tadej-poga%C4%8Dar-expects-a-difficult-race-at-the-2026-vuelta-a-espa%C3%B1a\/ar-AA2aAzeZ?ocid=winp1taskbar&amp;cvid=6a87e6bcd46d49c586484a4ef4f6c236&amp;cvpid=e15fe2ee2f97442aa68f90b89857c723&amp;ei=18\">he said<\/a> after being asked if the win will be easy for him. &#8220;It&#8217;s going to be a very tough race, it&#8217;s going to be a hard one. Everybody that is here, I expect them to be in top shape, and there are some very, very good riders here. It&#8217;s never easy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Well, what&#8217;s he going to say? Despite his dominance, he respects his rivals; he wouldn&#8217;t have won so often if he didn&#8217;t. But down deep he and his team know that becoming the ninth male rider to win all three Grand Tours will be a cakewalk.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Lesser competition than in the Tour<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>For starters, his most dangerous rival, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma\u2013Lease a Bike) \u2013 who became the eighth rider to register a career &#8220;Grand Slam&#8221; this year by winning the Giro \u2013 is not in the race, having retired for the year after injuring himself in the Tour de France. In addition, the four riders who finished second to fifth in the Tour are also not riding in the Vuelta. But Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), who finished sixth, will be. And so will Richard Carapaz (EF Education\u2013EasyPost), who finished eighth and won the King of the Mountains competition.<\/p>\n<p>But Skjelmose finished 14:59 behind the Slovenian and Carapaz was 20:00 adrift, even though Poga\u010dar spent a few stages helping his young teammate Isaac del Toro fight off Paul Seixas, rather than riding for his own account. Otherwise the gaps would probably have been even greater. Add to that the fact that this Vuelta is a climber&#8217;s paradise with a monumental 58,156 meters of total elevation gain, making it one of the hardest and most mountain-heavy routes in the history of the race. Poga\u010dar is the best climber in the world and is sure to gain lots of time in every mountain stage he targets.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DSX-2grCPjq\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Zobrazit p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek na Instagramu<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DSX-2grCPjq\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek sd\u00edlen\u00fd La Vuelta (@lavuelta)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>In addition, of his Vuelta rivals \u2013 which also include Oscar Onley and Carlos Rodr\u00edguez (Netcompany INEOS), Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), Cian Uijtdebroeks and Enric Mas (Movistar) and four-time Vuelta winner Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d (Red Bull\u2013BORA\u2013hansgrohe) \u2013 only the 33-year-old Carapaz and the 36-year-old Rogli\u010d have won a Grand Tour. Rogli\u010d is well past his prime and Carapaz may again aim for the King of the Mountains jersey, so you will understand why I believe that the winning margin will be more than 10 minutes.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s even a chance, a slim one, that Poga\u010dar will break the record for the largest winning margin in the history of the Vuelta, 30:08, set in 1945 by Delio Rodr\u00edguez; or at least the modern record, which was set in 1977 by Freddy Maertens, 21:14. (I don&#8217;t mean to insult Poga\u010dar&#8217;s rivals; they are all good riders. I&#8217;m just being realistic.) Unless he takes it easy; but does he actually know how to take it easy? It is possible that he and his team are sensitive to online complaints about how his dominance of the sport is affecting the races, so that he may be under orders to limit his advantage.<\/p>\n<p>The race could be over as early as stage 3, which ends with about 80km of continuous climbing that includes only two categorized climbs, the Col de Saint-Louis (19km @ 4.9%) and the first of seven summit finishes in the race, at Font Romeu (9.9km @ 4.9%). But the gradients are probably too modest to open much of a gap, so the decisive stage could be stage 9: 5,000 meters of climbing, including the 5.2km Puerto el Miserat, with ramps of up to 21%, and another long climb to a summit finish (21.9km @ 5.8%).<\/p>\n<p>These two are the &#8220;easy&#8221; mountain stages. Stages 12, 14, 19 and 20 (the queen stage) all propose more than 4,000 meters of altitude gain, with the climax coming on the final Saturday, with a summit finish on the only Beyond Category climb of the race, the Collado del Alguacil (8.3km @ 9.8%). These climbs are Poga\u010dar&#8217;s bread and butter and he should find himself alone for long stretches of the ascents, if he chooses to be.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The podium?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Who will finish second in the GC? It would be great for INEOS and Onley if he does, but he had a terrible year until the recent Vuelta a Burgos, in which he finished second by 5 seconds to Gall. The last stage of that race ended on a Beyond Category summit finish (6.4km @ 9.1%), and Onley finished second, in the same time as Gall, 3 seconds behind Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull\u2013BORA\u2013hansgrohe). That&#8217;s promising, but Pellizzari is no Poga\u010dar and the Vuelta is a three-week race, not five days, as was the Vuelta a Burgos.<\/p>\n<p>I like Skjelmose for second because he looked good in the Tour and is only 25 and still improving. Another podium possibility is Poga\u010dar&#8217;s race lieutenant Jo\u00e3o Almeida, who has had a terrible year, suffering from a persistent virus early in the year and then crashing out of the Tour de France and the Tour of Poland. He finished second in last year&#8217;s Vuelta, behind Vingegaard, so he can ride \u2013 and he will want to impress. But is he fit?<\/p>\n<p>If Carapaz sees a podium opportunity in the race and decides to go for it, he has the experience and legs to be in the mix. He&#8217;s definitely fit. In his last race, the one-day San Sebastian Classic, he finished second in the same time as the winner, Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull\u2013BORA\u2013hansgrohe). That&#8217;s not too shabby.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The green jersey race<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The most interesting contest in the race is likely to be the points competition, with Wout van Aert (Visma\u2013Lease a Bike), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin\u2013Premier Tech) looking to combine sprinting and climbing legs to win the green jersey.<\/p>\n<p>There are only three stages categorized as flat in which the winner, presumably in a bunch sprint, is awarded the maximum 50 points. But stage 8 has a tricky climb about 30km from the finish (4.7km @ 5.6%), and so does stage 11 (9.5km @ 4.2%), so that stage 17 looks to be the only finish ideal for a bunch sprint. This explains why there are so few pure sprinters in the race, Visma&#8217;s Matthew Brennan being one exception.<\/p>\n<p>There are also five stages designated as hilly and another four called medium mountain stages; in all nine of these stages, breakaways could make it to the finish. Pedersen and van Aert are breakaway specialists and their mano-a-mano will probably determine who wins green. Groves has had a difficult year due to injuries, so his form is questionable. Brennan won two stages in the Vuelta a Burgos and could take a stage or two, depending on his climbing legs. But that won&#8217;t give him enough points.<\/p>\n<p>Van Aert was on the verge of winning the green jersey in 2024 when he suffered a severe knee injury in a crash on a stage 16 descent that kept him from finding his best form for over a year. He seems to be back to his best now and I&#8217;m sure he would love to win the jersey that eluded him two years ago.<\/p>\n<p>Pedersen won the Vuelta green jersey last year and won this year&#8217;s Tour de France \u0160koda Green Jersey with an awesome demonstration of breakaway riding, climbing and amassing points at the intermediate sprints. Van Aert will have to be at his very best to have a chance. Unless, of course, Poga\u010dar ruins it by winning six or seven stages and amassing the most points that way. In any case, the battle for the intermediate sprint points should be crucial in the outcome.<\/p>\n<p>The race ends September 13 in Granada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That&#8217;s the only question regarding the GC contest about which there is some suspense in the upcoming Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":99,"featured_media":203949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[329],"tags":[7810,449,7350,479,3559,7212,3453,3415],"global-categories":[3366],"class_list":["post-206098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-road-cycling","tag-2026-la-vuelta","tag-joshua-tarling","tag-kaden-groves","tag-la-vuelta","tag-mads-pedersen","tag-mattias-skjelmose","tag-skoda-green-jersey","tag-tadej-pogacar","global-categories-cycling"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.3 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Tadej Poga\u010dar Win the Vuelta by More Than 10 Minutes? 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