{"id":198677,"date":"2025-05-30T10:45:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T10:45:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/?p=198677"},"modified":"2025-05-30T11:00:54","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T11:00:54","slug":"a-super-dramatic-giro-ditalia-heads-for-a-super-dramatic-finish-in-rome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/2025\/05\/30\/a-super-dramatic-giro-ditalia-heads-for-a-super-dramatic-finish-in-rome\/","title":{"rendered":"A Super Dramatic Giro d\u2019Italia Heads for a Super Dramatic Finish in Rome"},"content":{"rendered":"

With three stages left to race, this rollercoaster Giro d\u2019Italia is finely poised as less than a minute separates the top three GC contenders, with a fourth rider less than two minutes behind the surprise leader, Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates). The 21-year-old Mexican scored an impressive win on Wednesday\u2019s stage 17, riding away from his nearest rivals to increase his lead.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Where we\u2019re at<\/strong><\/h2>\n

After Thursday\u2019s stage 18, he leads Richard Carapaz (EF Education\u2013EasyPost) by 41 seconds, with Simon Yates (Visma\u2013Lease a Bike) a further 10 seconds adrift in third. Israel\u2013Premier Tech\u2019s Derek Gee sits 1:57 down in fourth place. Each of these four riders could win this Giro because large gains and losses are definitely possible on the next two stages, each of which has at least 4,000 meters of climbing.<\/p>\n

So, the Giro will be won by the best climber, as Grand Tours usually are. For me, the best climber in the race, by some distance, is Carapaz. Though he lost time to del Toro on Wednesday, that was because the Mexican rider is quicker on the flat, and the last part of the race was flat. The finishes on Friday and Saturday are not considered summit finishes, but the final climbs come close enough to the finish lines that they may as well be. And they are hard enough to really shake things up again.<\/p>\n

On Friday\u2019s stage 19, the final climb is easy enough, 9.5km @ 4.7%, and the finish line comes 5km after its summit, most of which is descent, but it is preceded by three tough Category 1 climbs, the last of which, the Col du Joux (15.3km @ 6.9%) comes immediately before it. On Saturday\u2019s stage, the finish line comes just a stone\u2019s throw from the summit of the final climb, a Category 3 to Sestriere (16.3km @ 3.8%). But that ascent is preceded by the HC (Beyond Category) Colle delle Finestre (18.4km @ 9.2%!), where the race may well be decided.<\/p>\n

Who will win<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But whoever comes over the Finestre climb first better have a sizable lead on del Toro, because he is fast and has shown that he can climb modest mountains. That means that, to defeat del Toro, Carapaz (or Yates or Gee) will have to begin building that lead on Friday, on the Col du Joux or even as early as the Category 1 climb before it, the Colle di San P\u00e1nthaleone (16.5km @ 7.2%).<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a lot of numbers to throw out, but this race will be decided by those numbers because, from what I\u2019ve seen, the now 32-year-old Carapaz (birthday on Thursday) is best on the long, steep climbs, where he can exploit his explosiveness and his stamina. He will certainly burst into the lead on one or two of the above-mentioned climbs, with (probably) Yates, Gee and maybe del Toro in pursuit. Yates and Gee will then try to climb at their own pace, to try and catch Carapaz in the hope that he will tire.<\/p>\n

It’s unclear if del Toro will be able to follow them. He wasn\u2019t able to follow them on Tuesday\u2019s final climb, but one theory put forward suggests that he never rides well on the race after a rest day. That\u2019s a new one for me. In any case, based on available data, visual plus history, Carapaz should win the race. But the Giro is always unpredictable (unless Poga\u010dar rides in it), and this edition has been insane.<\/p>\n

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Zobrazit p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek na Instagramu<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek sd\u00edlen\u00fd Giro d’Italia (@giroditalia)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n