{"id":198373,"date":"2025-04-11T11:25:53","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T11:25:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/?p=198373"},"modified":"2025-04-11T11:25:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T11:25:53","slug":"van-der-poel-pogacar-van-aert-and-pedersen-race-in-paris-roubaix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/2025\/04\/11\/van-der-poel-pogacar-van-aert-and-pedersen-race-in-paris-roubaix\/","title":{"rendered":"Van der Poel, Poga\u010dar, Van Aert and Pedersen Race for Cobblestone Glory in Paris-Roubaix"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\" data-start=\"273\" data-end=\"836\"><strong>After last Sunday\u2019s thrilling Tour of Flanders, won with a typical display of power, speed and stamina by Tadej Poga\u010dar, we can look forward to what may be an even more electrifying race this Sunday: Paris-Roubaix, also known as the Hell of the North. These past few months, much copy was devoted to speculating whether the Slovenian world champion would ride in the race this year, as it wasn\u2019t on his schedule and he had avoided it in the past. Speculation reached fever pitch after he was spotted doing a recon of the course on the sly in February.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"273\" data-end=\"836\"><!--more--><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"838\" data-end=\"1404\">A month later, his UAE Team Emirates\u2013XRG team finally confirmed that he would skip the E3 Saxo Classic in favor of Paris-Roubaix, a race that \u2013 he freely admitted \u2013 did not suit him. The reason is that there are no hard climbs in it, as there were in the Tour of Flanders. Poga\u010dar is the best climber of all the prominent one-day riders, an advantage he will not have next Sunday. What <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paris-roubaix.fr\/en\/\">Paris-Roubaix<\/a> has instead are cobblestones, 30 sectors of pav\u00e9 covering a total of\u00a055.3km of the 259.2km course from Compi\u00e8gne to the Roubaix Velodrome.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1525\" data-end=\"1861\">The cobblestones are unforgiving on the best of days \u2013 dusty, uneven, hard on the body and the bike \u2013 and if there\u2019s moisture on the course, it could be a little Armageddon. And the latest weather forecast calls for occasional rain and drizzle for Sunday, so the riders could be in for a very hard day. Let\u2019s hope the forecast is wrong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1863\" data-end=\"2321\">The most important cobblestone sectors, based on past races, are the Trou\u00e9e d\u2019Arenberg (look for sudden gaps in the peloton, flats and other mechanicals) and the Carrefour de l\u2019Arbre, which comes 15 km from the finish and could be the scene of the decisive breakaway, as it was in 2023, when Wout van Aert (Visma\u2013Lease a Bike) punctured there and Mathieu van der Poel raced away to win the first of his two consecutive victories in the iconic race.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1863\" data-end=\"2321\">The Alpecin-Deceuninck leader is the defending champion and will be going for his third consecutive victory in the most brutal of Monuments, a feat not accomplished since Francesco Moser did it in 1978\u201380.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DIOxqD9M5px\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">View this post on Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DIOxqD9M5px\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A post shared by Paris Roubaix (@parisroubaixcourse)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2726\" data-end=\"3030\">That should be motivation enough for the Dutchman, but he no doubt would also love to avenge his defeat in the Tour of Flanders, where he finished third. A day or two after that race, he divulged that he\u2019d been ill with a cold during the preceding week, had been on antibiotics and was not able to train.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3032\" data-end=\"3526\">To his credit, he did not offer that as an excuse. \u201cIt was clear that Tadej was the strongest,&#8221; he said. But it was also clear that he was not at his best, for he crashed with other riders on a stretch of smooth, flat road and had to race hard to catch up to the peloton. Van der Poel almost never crashes, certainly not on dry pavement, as he is a superb bike-handler. So we can expect an improvement over his Flanders performance, which was exceptional for a mere mortal, but not for him.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3528\" data-end=\"3960\">His bike-handling ability is an advantage he has over Poga\u010dar, as is his knowledge of the course and prior success. He knows how to ride these cobbles. He is also much heavier than the Slovenian, 75 kg versus 66 kg according to official data. That is an advantage on this surface. And, finally, the climbs are insubstantial compared to those in the Tour of Flanders, so Poga\u010dar will have to beat him by being faster and smarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3962\" data-end=\"4384\">The lack of climbs is the reason that this is a difficult race to handicap. Yes, for the reasons stated above, Van der Poel should be considered the favorite. On the other hand, Poga\u010dar does have a very strong team to support him, which includes two riders, Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch, who have finished second in the race. However, Van Aert\u2019s teammate Dylan van Baarle won the race in 2022, ahead of \u2026 Van Aert.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4433\" data-end=\"4943\">The best strategy for Poga\u010dar would be to go on a long solo run, at a pace that only Van der Poel can match, and then beat him in the sprint. But based on the Tour of Flanders, Poga\u010dar distanced his rivals on the climbs and wore them out, finally racing away for his victory. That would probably be Van der Poel\u2019s strategy too. He won last year by going on a 60 km breakaway and winning the race by 3 minutes. But they may not be able to have the race all to themselves here. Here is a list of the reasons why:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4944\" data-end=\"5094\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"4944\" data-end=\"4956\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4946\" data-end=\"4956\">Wout Van Aert<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"4957\" data-end=\"4986\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4959\" data-end=\"4986\">Mads Pedersen (Lidl\u2013Trek)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"4987\" data-end=\"5021\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4989\" data-end=\"5021\">Jonathan Milan (Lidl\u2013Trek)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"5022\" data-end=\"5058\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"5024\" data-end=\"5058\">Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"5059\" data-end=\"5094\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"5061\" data-end=\"5094\">Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"5168\" data-end=\"5498\">Van Aert finished fourth in the Tour of Flanders and looked close to his old self again. Barring another mechanical, he just might have the legs to keep up with Poga\u010dar and\/or Van der Poel and beat them in a sprint. In addition, he is probably the freshest of the main contenders and will also be stronger than he was last Sunday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"5500\" data-end=\"5791\">Pedersen is in the form of his life, having won Gent\u2013Wevelgem and finishing second in the Tour of Flanders and the E3 Saxo Classic. This race should finally suit him. I say \u2018finally\u2019 because the Dane has ridden it seven times, with his best finishes a fourth in 2023 and third last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"5884\" data-end=\"6084\">He suffered on the climbs of Flanders, but he won\u2019t face that problem here. But is he strong enough to ride with the two favorites if they take off with, say, 60 km left to ride? Maybe we\u2019ll find out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"6086\" data-end=\"6489\">As for Ganna, who finished second in Milan\u2013San Remo, ahead of Poga\u010dar but behind <a href=\"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/2025\/03\/29\/van-der-poel-wins-e3-saxo-classic-with-devastating-solo-ride\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Van der Poel,<\/a> the absence of tough climbs will work in his favor. His best finish in the race, of four attempts, was a sixth place in 2023. The Italian has shown himself to be an excellent Classics rider, but hasn\u2019t proven that he is of the caliber of the race favorites. And he doesn\u2019t strike me as a man for the cobbles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"6491\" data-end=\"6882\">As for the sprinters on the above list \u2013 Milan and Merlier \u2013 if they manage to accompany the favorites into the final kilometer, then so will Van der Poel\u2019s teammate Jasper Philipsen, who finished second the last two years. But this will not be a sprinter-friendly race, since the favorites\u2019 teams will be riding very fast to drop the sprinters or at least take the starch out of their legs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"6884\" data-end=\"7046\">So, who will win? My head says Van der Poel, my heart says Van Aert, I would put my money on Pedersen at odds of 6-1, but it will probably be Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After last Sunday\u2019s thrilling Tour of Flanders, won with a typical display of power, speed and stamina by Tadej Poga\u010dar, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":99,"featured_media":198375,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[329],"tags":[8458,3559,2933,893,3415,831],"global-categories":[3366],"class_list":["post-198373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-road-cycling","tag-2025-paris-roubaix","tag-mads-pedersen","tag-mathieu-van-der-poel","tag-paris-roubaix","tag-tadej-pogacar","tag-wout-van-aert","global-categories-cycling"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.3 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - 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speed and stamina by Tadej Poga\u010dar, we can look forward to what may\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/wide\/2025\/04\/11\/van-der-poel-pogacar-van-aert-and-pedersen-race-in-paris-roubaix\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u0160koda We Love Cycling\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-11T11:25:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/d2p6e6u75xmxt8.cloudfront.net\/2\/2025\/04\/Pogacar-UAE-Emirates-Paris-Roubaix-profimedia-0986475223-CVR.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"990\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"660\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"tereza\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Siegfried Mortkowitz\" \/>\n\t<meta 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