{"id":1851,"date":"2020-08-31T11:30:31","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T11:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/ie\/?p=1851"},"modified":"2020-08-31T11:30:31","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T11:30:31","slug":"who-has-a-shot-at-winning-this-years-tour-de-france","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.welovecycling.com\/ie\/2020\/08\/31\/who-has-a-shot-at-winning-this-years-tour-de-france\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Has a Shot at Winning This Year\u2019s Tour de France"},"content":{"rendered":"

The good news is that, despite the rise of Covid-19 infections in France, this year\u2019s Tour de France is still set to start on August 29, two months later than originally scheduled. The pandemic killed off much of the spring racing season and the rescheduled calendar has made it difficult to judge riders on their form.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Still, if last year\u2019s winner Egan Bernal had not abandoned the Crit\u00e9rium du Dauphin\u00e9<\/a> earlier this month because of a sore back, and if he hadn\u2019t been outclassed in the stages he did race in by Slovenia\u2019s Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d and if his usually hyper-professional Team Ineos had not looked disorganized in that race (after which they kicked four-time Tour winner Chris Froome and 2018 champ Geraint Thomas off their Tour team for lack of fitness), I would have said that the Colombian Wunderkind was a sure bet to win again this year. But that\u2019s a lot of ifs.<\/p>\n

\"Primo\u017e
Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d and Egan Bernal ride during the second stage of the 2020 Criterium du Dauphine. \u00a9 Profimedia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The decision to have Bernal quit the Dauphin\u00e9<\/a> was surely only precautionary, to make sure that he is 100 per cent fit for the Tour. And Team Ineos has been the most professional and successful cycling outfit of the past decade, winning five straight Tours and seven of the last eight \u2013 which is the kind of domination teams in any sport can only dream of. So write off Bernal and Ineos at your peril. Whatever the 23-year-old Colombian lacked in fitness two weeks ago he can surely gain in the opening Tour stages and then outkick his rivals on the final week\u2019s climbs, as he did last year. But if he falters, Ineos have another iron in the fire, the 27-year-old Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz, the winner of last year\u2019s Giro d\u2019Italia.<\/p>\n

But Rogli\u010d will be a formidable opponent<\/a> \u2013 and in Team Jumbo-Visma, he appears to have the team to contest Ineos\u2019s dominance. This will be the third Tour for the 30-year-old Slovenian racer who finished 38th in 2017 and 4th the following year. He skipped last year\u2019s Tour to concentrate on the Vuelta, which he won, after finishing third in the Giro.<\/p>\n

He obviously has the chops to win the Tour and he\u2019s had an excellent season, winning the Slovenian national road race championships, the general classification and points title in the Tour de l\u2019Ain and a stage in the Dauphin\u00e9 where he was leading the general classification and points races when he crashed and had to pull out before the final stage. What\u2019s more, Rogli\u010d was faster than Bernal on the summit finishes of Stage 2 and 3 of the Dauphin\u00e9 \u2013 though the Tour, of course, is a completely different test in which the big climbs come after two and a half weeks of racing, not a day and a half.<\/p>\n

\"Tom
Wout van Aert wearing the \u0160koda Green Jersey next to Tom Dumoulin. \u00a9 Profimedia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Like Ineos, Team Jumbo-Visma has two strong contenders for the Tour title. If Rogli\u010d slips up, Dutchman Tom Dumoulin is more than capable of stepping into his shoes. Injuries from a crash early in last year\u2019s Giro effectively ended his 2019 racing season but he won the Giro in 2017 and finished second in both the Giro and the Tour the following year, a remarkable performance. The 29-year-old Dumoulin hasn\u2019t raced much this spring, with a 7th place in the Dauphin\u00e9 being his only notable performance. But if he\u2019s in the Tour, it means that he\u2019s fit. And he and Rogli\u010d can count on a team that may be as strong, if not stronger, than Ineos, as it includes the rugged German rider Tony Martin and Belgium\u2019s Wout van Aert who has been called the best domestique in the world.<\/p>\n

This year, France\u2019s perennial big hope Thibaut Pinot again looks like a strong contender for the title. Always an excellent climber, he was in the hunt for the yellow jersey when he had to abandon last year\u2019s Tour with an injury during the 19th stage. Pinot has been the Tour\u2019s Great French Hope since 2014 when he finished third in the general classification. Since then, it\u2019s been a lot of DNFs and one 16th place finish. He is now 30 years old and, given his fragility, this year may represent his last realistic chance of taking the big prize.<\/p>\n

Pinot has prepared well for the Tour, taking part in five preparation races, and finishing second in the Dauphin\u00e9. If he doesn\u2019t again suffer an injury, he will probably be close enough to the lead in the third week to break French hearts again. Egan Bernal is not the only young Colombian cyclist with a chance to win the Tour this year. There is also 24-year-old Daniel Martinez who won the Dauphin\u00e9 this year after Rogli\u010d dropped out. He also finished second in this year\u2019s Tour of Colombia, behind and ahead of two EF Pro Cycling teammates, suggesting that he will be coming for the Tour with what appears to be a strong team \u2013 including perennial favourite Rigoberto Ur\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

\"Tour
Julian Alaphilippe lost his yellow jersey on stage 19 (Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Tignes. 26 Jul 2019) \u00a9 Profimedia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A brief mention here of Frenchman Julien Alaphilippe who made his country\u2019s heart dance last year when he wore the yellow jersey for 14 stages of the Tour until fading in the 19th stage on the climb to the Col de l\u2019Iseran. He finished fifth in the Tour, instantly making his compatriots dream of 2020. But Alaphilippe has said he is not going for yellow this year. The question then is, what will he be shooting for?<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t take an Einstein to foresee some serious disruptions to this year\u2019s Tour because of Covid. Race organizers have announced that teams will be withdrawn from the Tour if two riders or staff members show symptoms of the illness or test positive. That means that this year\u2019s race is not only against the clock but also against the virus.<\/p>\n

Here are the bookmakers\u2019 odds<\/a> for the 2020 Tour de France yellow jersey (as of Aug. 27):<\/p>\n

Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d (Slo) Jumbo-Visma 9\/4
\nEgan Bernal (Col) Team Ineos 9\/4
\nTom Dumoulin (Ned) Jumbo-Visma 11\/2
\nThibaut Pinot (Fra) Groupama-FDJ 6\/1
\nTadej Poga\u010dar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates 12\/1
\nRichard Carapaz (Ecu) Team Ineos 12\/1
\nJulian Alaphilippe (Fra) Deceuninck \u2013 Quick-Step 20\/1
\nEmanual Buchmann (Ger) Bora-Hansgrohe 28\/1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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